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Projektion der COVID19 -Epidemie in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Roch Donsimoni

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • René Glawion

    (Hamburg University)

  • Bodo Plachter

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Klaus Wälde

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

Abstract

Die COVID19-Epidemie wird in Deutschland im optimistischen Szenario mindestens bis Juli dauern, im normalen Szenario bis August. Öffentliche Maßnahmen wie Kontaktverbot flachen den Anstieg der Erkrankungen temporär ab und verlängern die Dauer der Epidemie. In der Spitze sind im optimistischen Szenario gleichzeitig bis zu 200 Tausend Menschen erkrankt, im normalen Szenario liegen die Werte um eine Million. Langfristig werden im normalen Szenario 6% der Bevölkerung (gemeldet) erkrankt gewesen sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID19 -Epidemie in Deutschland," Working Papers 2005, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    2. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Wälde Klaus & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should contact bans be lifted in Germany?," Working Papers 2008, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Donsimoni, Jean Roch & Glawion, René & Plachter, Bodo & Weiser, Constantin & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13151, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Quaas, Georg, 2021. "The measurement of the reproduction number," Working Papers 171, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

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