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Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung

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Author Info

  • Benjamin Born
  • Teresa Buchen

    ()

  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme

    ()

  • Michael Kleemann

    ()

  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

    ()

Abstract

Ist der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion, verbunden mit einer externen Abwertung der neuen Währung, eine gangbare Alternative zur derzeitigen Strategie der internen Abwertung, verbunden mit öffentlichem Kapitaltransfer? Das ifo Institut vergleicht in dem Beitrag die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen von drei möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Im ersten Szenario tritt Griechenland aus dem Euro aus und führt die Neue Griechische Drachme als offizielles Zahlungsmittel ein. Im zweiten Szenario verbleibt Griechenland in der Währungsunion und schafft es, die notwendige interne Abwertung zu erreichen. Im dritten Szenario wird angenommen, dass Griechenland zwar in der Währungsunion verbleibt, die notwendige interne Abwertung jedoch misslingt und durch öffentliche Subventionen aus der EU ausgeglichen wird. Während das letzte Szenario die aktuelle Situation fortschreibt, wird für die ersten beiden Szenarien anhand von historischen Beispielen untersucht, wie sich wichtige volkswirtschaftliche Größen nach großen Abwertungen entwickelt haben. Zudem werden für diese beiden Szenarien mögliche negative Bilanzeffekte für Griechenland analysiert. Zum Abschluss wird die technische Umsetzung des Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone diskutiert.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 10 (05)
Pages: 09-37

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37

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Keywords: Staatsbankrott; Umschuldung; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; Finanzmarktkrise; Griechenland; Eurozone;

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References

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  1. Axel Lindner, 2011. "Macroeconomic adjustment: the Baltic states versus euro area crisis countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 340-345, December.
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Rose, Andrew K, 2007. "Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Karl Brenke, 2012. "Die griechische Wirtschaft braucht eine Wachstumsstrategie," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(5), pages 3-15.
  11. Hans-Wener Sinn & Teresa Buchen & Timo Wollmershauser, 2011. "Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Measures," Book Chapters, in: Jack T. Boorman & André Icard (ed.), Reform of the International Monetary System: The Palais Royal Initiative, chapter 26, pages 321-342 Emerging Markets Forum.
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Cited by:
  1. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Gedämpfte Expansion bei hohen Risiken," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 57, 09.
  2. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 2: European Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 55-72, 02.
  3. Peter Burgold, 2013. "Nominale Abwertung innerhalb einer Währungsunion," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 47-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  4. Dirk Meyer, 2012. "Das Konzept nationaler Parallelwährungen für die Eurozone," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 19-28, 08.
  5. Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "Euro Area Scenarios and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 323-351.
  6. Reiner Peter Hellbrück, 2012. "Regionale Zinspolitik," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(15), pages 27-34, 08.

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