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Wachstum und Konjunktur in OECD-Ländern: Eine langfristige Perspektive

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Author Info

  • Harm Bandholz
  • Gebhard Flaig
  • Johannes Mayr

Abstract

Gemessen an der Wachstumsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts weist Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich in den letzten Jahren eine besonders schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung auf. Ob dies eher eine ungünstige konjunkturelle Entwicklung widerspiegelt oder ob sich dahinter eine langfristige Wachstumsschwäche verbirgt, wird hier mit Hilfe eines Strukturellen Zeitreihenmodells ermittelt. Das Modell stellt für verschiedene OECD-Länder von 1950 bis 2004 die Beiträge von Konjunktur und langfristigem Trend zu den Wachstumsraten des BIP dar. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Trendwachstumsrate seit den fünfziger Jahren in allen analysierten Ländern zurückging. Besonders stark war aber der Rückgang in Deutschland. Das heißt, dass die enttäuschende wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland vor allem auf die niedrige langfristige Trendwachstumsrate zurückzuführen ist und deutet auf bereits seit langem bestehende Strukturprobleme in Deutschland hin.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 04 (02)
Pages: 28-36

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:04:p:28-36

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Related research

Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunktur; Prognose; Wirtschaftspolitik; Deutschland; OECD-Staaten;

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References

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  1. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  3. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M. & van Dijk, H.K., 2002. "Cyclical components in economic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Harvey, A. & TTrimbur, T. & van Dijk, H., 2003. "Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0302, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
  6. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank, 2004. "Wachstum des Produktionspotentials in Deutschland bleibt schwach," Kiel Discussion Papers 414, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  9. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Gibt es einen »New-Economy-Effekt« auf das amerikanische Produktionspotential?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 16-21, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Doina Radulescu & Michael Stimmelmayr, 2010. "The welfare loss from differential taxation of sectors in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 193-215, April.
  2. Radulescu, Doina & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2010. "The impact of the 2008 German corporate tax reform: A dynamic CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 454-467, January.

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