A threshold model for the spread

Using annual data from two panels, one of 11 Eurozone countries and another of 31 OECD countries, we estimate a two-regime log-linear as well as a nonlinear model for the spread as a function of macroeconomic and quality-of-institutions variables. The two regimes, a high-spread and a low-spread regime, are distinguished by using a threshold, in accordance with the perceived “fair” value of the spread as a reference point. Our results suggest that government-bond spreads are regime-dependent, as most of the regression coefficients of the determinants of the spread are larger (in absolute value) in the high-spread regime than in the low-spread regime. That is, an improvement in the macroeconomic environment (e.g., lower unemployment, lower inflation, lower growth of the debt-to-GDP ratio, less macroeconomic uncertainty, higher growth of real GDP), and/or an improvement in the quality of institutions (e.g., less corruption) reduce the spread facing a country (by enhancing its creditworthiness) to a greater extent in high-spread situations than in low-spread situations. A possible explanation is that the demand for and the supply of loans are inelastic at higher than “fair” interest rates and elastic at lower rates.