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Tournament Selection Efficiency: An Analysis of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup

Author

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  • Connolly Robert

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Rendleman Richard J.

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract

Analytical descriptions of tournament selection efficiency properties can be elusive for realistic tournament structures. Combining a Monte Carlo simulation with a statistical model of player skill and random variation in scoring, we estimate the selection efficiency of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup, a very complex multi-stage golf competition, which distributes $35 million in prize money, including $10 million to the winner. Our assessments of efficiency are based on traditional selection efficiency measures. We also introduce three new measures of efficiency which focus on the ability of a given tournament structure to identify properly the relative skills of all tournament participants and to distribute efficiently all of the tournament's prize money. We find that reasonable deviations from the present FedExCup structure do not yield large differences in the various measures of efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Connolly Robert & Rendleman Richard J., 2012. "Tournament Selection Efficiency: An Analysis of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-33, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:4:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1495
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas G. Hall & Chris N. Potts, 2012. "A Proposal for Redesign of the FedEx Cup Playoff Series on the PGA TOUR," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 166-179, April.
    2. Jennifer Brown, 2011. "Quitters Never Win: The (Adverse) Incentive Effects of Competing with Superstars," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(5), pages 982-1013.
    3. Robert A. Connolly & Richard J. Rendleman, 2012. "What It Takes to Win on the PGA TOUR (If Your Name Is “Tiger” or If It Isn't)," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(6), pages 554-576, December.
    4. Connolly, Robert A. & Rendleman, Richard J., 2008. "Skill, Luck, and Streaky Play on the PGA Tour," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 74-88, March.
    5. Dmitry Ryvkin & Andreas Ortmann, 2008. "The Predictive Power of Three Prominent Tournament Formats," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 492-504, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Broadie Mark & Rendleman Richard J., 2013. "Are the official world golf rankings biased?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 127-140, June.
    2. Alan Cinnamond, 2015. "An analysis of the design of the PGA Tour's FedExCup," Birkbeck Sports Business Centre Working Papers 12, Birkbeck College, Department of Management.

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