IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v8y2012i3n9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Curling Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Clement David

    (Smartodds Ltd.)

Abstract

This paper addresses two important strategic questions in the sport of curling, namely (i) when it is best to blank rather than take one point, and (ii) when entering the final end, is it preferable to be winning by one point without last rock advantage or be losing by one point with last rock advantage. A multinomial logistic regression for end score probabilities and a Markov model for game win probabilities are introduced to answer both of the questions of interest. An asymptotic sampling procedure is used for statistical inference. The paper also updates and expands the data used in the previously published empirical curling analyses to take account of an important rule change.

Suggested Citation

  • Clement David, 2012. "An Analysis of Curling Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:3:n:9
    DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1500
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/1559-0410.1500?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2005. "An Analysis of a Strategic Decision in the Sport of Curling," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 58-63, March.
    2. Kostuk, Kent J. & Willoughby, Keith A. & Saedt, Anton P. H., 2001. "Modelling curling as a Markov process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 557-565, September.
    3. Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2004. "Preferred Scenarios in the Sport of Curling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 117-122, April.
    4. Alexander Shapiro & Jos Berge, 2002. "Statistical inference of minimum rank factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 79-94, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nowak, Piotr Bolesław, 2016. "The MLE of the mean of the exponential distribution based on grouped data is stochastically increasing," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 49-54.
    2. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Anastasiou, Andreas, 2017. "Bounds for the normal approximation of the maximum likelihood estimator from m-dependent random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 171-181.
    4. Evelina Di Corso & Tania Cerquitelli & Daniele Apiletti, 2018. "METATECH: METeorological Data Analysis for Thermal Energy CHaracterization by Means of Self-Learning Transparent Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Silva, Ivair R., 2017. "Confidence intervals through sequential Monte Carlo," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 112-124.
    6. Denter, Philipp & Sisak, Dana, 2015. "Do polls create momentum in political competition?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Salgado Alfredo, 2018. "Incomplete Information and Costly Signaling in College Admissions," Working Papers 2018-23, Banco de México.
    8. Albrecht, James & Anderson, Axel & Vroman, Susan, 2010. "Search by committee," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1386-1407, July.
    9. Stegeman, Alwin, 2016. "A new method for simultaneous estimation of the factor model parameters, factor scores, and unique parts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 189-203.
    10. Mauricio Romero & Ã lvaro Riascos & Diego Jara, 2015. "On the Optimality of Answer-Copying Indices," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 40(5), pages 435-453, October.
    11. Chen, Yunxiao & Moustaki, Irini & Zhang, H, 2020. "A note on likelihood ratio tests for models with latent variables," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Blier-Wong, Christopher & Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Etienne, 2023. "Risk aggregation with FGM copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 102-120.
    13. Zhu, Qiansheng & Lang, Joseph B., 2022. "Test-inversion confidence intervals for estimands in contingency tables subject to equality constraints," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. van Bentum, Thomas & Cramer, Erhard, 2019. "Stochastic monotonicity of MLEs of the mean for exponentially distributed lifetimes under hybrid censoring," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-8.
    15. Yusuke Narita, 2021. "A Theory of Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of School Quality," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4982-5010, August.
    16. Grant J. Cameron & Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Mustafa Dinc & James Foster & Michael M. Lokshin, 2021. "Measuring the Statistical Capacity of Nations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 870-896, August.
    17. Simon Bruhn & Thomas Grebel & Lionel Nesta, 2023. "The fallacy in productivity decomposition," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 797-835, July.
    18. Schaarschmidt, Frank & Gerhard, Daniel & Vogel, Charlotte, 2017. "Simultaneous confidence intervals for comparisons of several multinomial samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-76.
    19. Fernández-Duque, Mauricio, 2022. "The probability of pluralistic ignorance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    20. Wim J. van der Linden, 2019. "Lord’s Equity Theorem Revisited," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 44(4), pages 415-430, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:3:n:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.