Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies
Abstract
We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of sunspot solutions. A general bivariate reduced form contains parameter regions in which sunspots are stable under learning. However, for parameters restricted to those generated by standard models of indeterminacy, we find, under one information assumption, that no stable sunspots exist, and under another information assumption, that they exist only for a very small part of the indeterminacy region. This leads to the following puzzle: why does indeterminacy almost always imply instability in RBC-type models?Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): contributions.5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 8
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
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Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm
Related research
Keywords: business cycles; sunspots; expectations; learning;Other versions of this item:
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 27 Aug 2005.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004.
"Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2004-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 Mar 2004.
- Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
- Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006.
"Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1423-1435, October.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 173, Econometric Society.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 498, Econometric Society.
- Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005.
"Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/37, Center for Financial Studies.
- Hirose, Yasuo, 2008. "Learnability and equilibrium selection under indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3459-3477, November.
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2007.
"Representations and Sunspot Stability,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2007-1, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 28 Aug 2008.
- Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2011. "Representations And Sunspot Stability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 80-92, February.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009.
"Learning and Macroeconomics,"
Annual Review of Economics,
Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, 05.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
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