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Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies

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  • Evans George W

    ()
    (University of Oregon)

  • McGough Bruce

    ()
    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of sunspot solutions. A general bivariate reduced form contains parameter regions in which sunspots are stable under learning. However, for parameters restricted to those generated by standard models of indeterminacy, we find, under one information assumption, that no stable sunspots exist, and under another information assumption, that they exist only for a very small part of the indeterminacy region. This leads to the following puzzle: why does indeterminacy almost always imply instability in RBC-type models?

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 1-46

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.5:y:2005:i:1:n:8

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Cited by:
  1. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 173, Econometric Society.
  2. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
  3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2003. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Working Papers 14, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  4. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
  5. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
  6. Hirose, Yasuo, 2008. "Learnability and equilibrium selection under indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3459-3477, November.
  7. Weder, Mark, 2003. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 65-81, March.
  8. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.

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