IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v46y2020i3p409-441.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?

Author

Listed:
  • Daphne H. Liu
  • Adrian E. Raftery

Abstract

Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important? We assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high‐fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub‐Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Daphne H. Liu & Adrian E. Raftery, 2020. "How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 409-441, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:46:y:2020:i:3:p:409-441
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12347
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/padr.12347?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Osili, Una Okonkwo & Long, Bridget Terry, 2008. "Does female schooling reduce fertility? Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 57-75, August.
    2. John Bongaarts & Barbara S. Mensch & Ann K. Blanc, 2017. "Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 139-154, May.
    3. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 2000. "The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1617-1627.
    4. Bailey Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(35), pages 1011-1034.
    5. Adrian Raftery & Steven Lewis & Akbar Aghajanian, 1995. "Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian Marital Fertility Decline," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(2), pages 159-182, May.
    6. Ševčíková, Hana & Alkema, Leontine & Raftery, Adrian, 2011. "bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i01).
    7. Paul Gertler & John Molyneaux, 1994. "How economic development and family planning programs combined to reduce indonesian fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 33-63, February.
    8. Kamila Cygan-Rehm & Miriam Maeder, 2012. "The Effect of Education on Fertility: Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform," Working Papers 121, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    9. Michael White & Salut Muhidin & Catherine Andrzejewski & Eva Tagoe & Rodney Knight & Holly Reed, 2008. "Urbanization and fertility: An event-history analysis of Coastal Ghana," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(4), pages 803-816, November.
    10. Monica J. Grant, 2015. "The Demographic Promise of Expanded Female Education: Trends in the Age at First Birth in Malawi," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 409-438, September.
    11. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Julia Behrman, 2015. "Does Schooling Affect Women’s Desired Fertility? Evidence From Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 787-809, June.
    14. Subbarao, K & Raney, Laura, 1995. "Social Gains from Female Education: A Cross-National Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 105-128, October.
    15. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, September.
    16. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
    17. Paul Gertler & Jack Molyneaux, 1994. "Erratum to: How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(2), pages 1-1, May.
    18. John Bongaarts, 2017. "The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(6), pages 129-146.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dana Sarnak & Stan Becker, 2022. "Accuracy of wives' proxy reports of husbands' fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(17), pages 503-546.
    2. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Nicholas A. Mailloux & Colleen P. Henegan & Dorothy Lsoto & Kristen P. Patterson & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley & Jonathan A. Patz, 2021. "Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Michael Ekholuenetale & Olah Uloko Owobi & Benedict Terfa Shishi, 2022. "Socioeconomic Position in Modern Contraceptive Uptake and Fertility Rate among Women of Childbearing Age in 37 Sub-Saharan Countries," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Mohamed Salih Mahfouz & Mona Elmahdy & Majed Ahmed Ryani & Amani Osman Abdelmola & Samah Ahmed Ali Kariri & Hayat Yahya Ahmad Alhazmi & Salwa Hussain Mater Almalki & Ons Mohammed Adhabi & Sahar Mohamm, 2023. "Contraceptive Use and the Associated Factors among Women of Reproductive Age in Jazan City, Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    2. Fatma Romeh M. Ali & Shiferaw Gurmu, 2018. "The impact of female education on fertility: a natural experiment from Egypt," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 681-712, September.
    3. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    4. Jungho Kim, 2010. "Women's Education and Fertility: An Analysis of the Relationship between Education and Birth Spacing in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 739-774, July.
    5. Naci Mocan & Luiza Pogorelova, 2014. "Compulsory Schooling Laws and Formation of Beliefs: Education, Religion and Superstition," NBER Working Papers 20557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Miron Tequame & Nyasha Tirivayi, 2015. "Higher education and fertility: Evidence from a natural experiment in Ethiopia," CINCH Working Paper Series 1509, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Competent in Competition and Health, revised Aug 2015.
    7. Zhang, Zheyuan & Zhao, Zhong, 2023. "Women's education and fertility in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Marine de Talancé, 2019. "Education, fertility and childlessness in Indonesia [Education, fécondité en Indonésie]," Working Papers hal-02310876, HAL.
    9. Schultz, T. Paul, 2008. "Population Policies, Fertility, Women's Human Capital, and Child Quality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 52, pages 3249-3303, Elsevier.
    10. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
    11. Murat G. Kırdar & Meltem Dayıoğlu & İsmet Koç, 2018. "The Effects of Compulsory-Schooling Laws on Teenage Marriage and Births in Turkey," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 640-668.
    12. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    13. Joseph Potter & Carl Schmertmann & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2002. "Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(4), pages 739-761, November.
    14. Uma Radhakrishnan, 2010. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for Women in Indonesia," Working Papers 10-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Naci Mocan & Luiza Pogorelova, 2014. "Compulsory Schooling Laws and Formation of Beliefs: Education, Religion and Superstition," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1423, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    16. Michael Pearce & Adrian E. Raftery, 2021. "Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(52), pages 1271-1294.
    17. Michael Grimm & Robert Sparrow & Luca Tasciotti, 2015. "Does Electrification Spur the Fertility Transition? Evidence From Indonesia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1773-1796, October.
    18. James, Jonathan & Vujić, Sunčica, 2019. "From high school to the high chair: Education and fertility timing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-24.
    19. Margaret Frye & Sara Lopus, 2018. "From Privilege to Prevalence: Contextual Effects of Women’s Schooling on African Marital Timing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2371-2394, December.
    20. Bellés-Obrero, Cristina & Cabrales, Antonio & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Vall-Castelló, Judit, 2023. "Women’s education, fertility and children’ health during a gender equalization process: Evidence from a child labor reform in Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:46:y:2020:i:3:p:409-441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.