Speculative Efficiency on the London Metal Exchange
AbstractThis paper examines the proposition that forward rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates for base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange. The analysis is complicated by the fact that the data are sampled more frequently than the life of the forward contracts. Though the implications of this for stationary inference are well known, it has not yet been addressed within the context of unit root econometrics. This is explored and an estimation and testing strategy is proposed. The results are surprisingly favorable to the unbiasedness proposition. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.
Volume (Year): 63 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/disciplines/economics/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Maria Stückler, 2002. "Handel auf Terminkontraktmärkten," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp080, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
- Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
- Heaney, Richard, 2002. "Does knowledge of the cost of carry model improve commodity futures price forecasting ability?: A case study using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 45-65.
- Triantafyllopoulos, Kostas, 2006. "Multivariate discount weighted regression and local level models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3702-3720, August.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008.
"Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion," Working Papers 06-14, Bank of Canada.
- Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2003.
"Pricing of Non-ferrous Metals Futures on the London Metal Exchange,"
CIRJE-F-213, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2006. "Pricing of non-ferrous metals futures on the London Metal Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 853-880.
- Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, EconWPA.
- Moore, Michael J. & Copeland, Laurence S., 1995. "A comparison of Johansen and Phillips-Hansen cointegration tests of forward market efficiency Baillie and Bollerslev revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 131-135, February.
- An-Sing Chen & James Wuh Lin, 2004. "Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1157-1167.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.