IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v63y2023i2p409-445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Greve
  • Michael Fritsch
  • Michael Wyrwich

Abstract

What characterizes regions where right‐wing populist parties are relatively successful? A prominent hypothesis proposed in the emerging “geography of discontent” literature claims that places that are “left behind” constitute a breeding ground for the rise of populism. We re‐examine this hypothesis by analyzing the rise of populism in Germany. Our results suggest that high vote shares of populist parties are associated with the long‐term decline of a region's relative welfare, which goes beyond a lifespan of people inhabiting such “left behind” places. Moreover, we are able to show that a place‐based collective memory about past prosperity plays a crucial role in shaping present resentment. Finally, we find the education level of the regional population to be an important channel through which the collective memory about the past translates into populism support today.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Greve & Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2023. "Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 409-445, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:63:y:2023:i:2:p:409-445
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12627
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jors.12627?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jürgen Essletzbichler & Franziska Disslbacher & Mathias Moser, 2018. "The victims of neoliberal globalisation and the rise of the populist vote: a comparative analysis of three recent electoral decisions," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 73-94.
    2. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2019. "Historical shocks and persistence of economic activity: evidence on self-employment from a unique natural experiment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 790-802, June.
    3. Ilyana Kuziemko & Michael I. Norton & Emmanuel Saez & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2015. "How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1478-1508, April.
    4. Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2020. "The geography of EU discontent," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 737-753, June.
    5. Easterlin, Richard A, 2001. "Income and Happiness: Towards an Unified Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 465-484, July.
    6. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    7. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    9. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    10. Lutz Schneider, 2020. "Deindustrialisierung und Wahlverhalten [Deindustrialisation and Voting Behaviour: A Regional Analysis of the German Federal Election of 2017]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(10), pages 787-792, October.
    11. Broz, J. Lawrence & Frieden, Jeffry & Weymouth, Stephen, 2021. "Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 464-494, April.
    12. Shanker Satyanath & Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2017. "Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 478-526.
    13. Ian R Gordon, 2018. "In what sense left behind by globalisation? Looking for a less reductionist geography of the populist surge in Europe," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 95-113.
    14. Michael Bailey & Rachel Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel & Arlene Wong, 2018. "Social Connectedness: Measurement, Determinants, and Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 259-280, Summer.
    15. Haffert, Lukas, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of Oppression: Prussia, Political Catholicism, and the Alternative für Deutschland," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 595-614, May.
    16. Kenny, Michael & Luca, Davide, 2021. "The urban-rural polarisation of political disenchantment: an investigation of social and political attitudes in 30 European countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112683, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Giuliano, Paola & Wacziarg, Romain, 2020. "Who Voted for Trump? Populism and Social Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 15140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Jonna Rickardsson & Charlotta Mellander & Lina Bjerke, 2021. "The Stockholm Syndrome: the view of the capital by the “Places Left Behind”," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 601-617.
    19. Jörg L. Spenkuch & Philipp Tillmann, 2018. "Elite Influence? Religion and the Electoral Success of the Nazis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 19-36, January.
    20. Joselin Segovia & Nicola Pontarollo & Mercy Orellana, 2021. "Discontent with democracy in Latin America," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 417-438.
    21. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2018. "Regional knowledge, entrepreneurial culture, and innovative start-ups over time and space―an empirical investigation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 337-353, August.
    22. Jonna Rickardsson, 2021. "The urban–rural divide in radical right populist support: the role of resident’s characteristics, urbanization trends and public service supply," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 211-242, August.
    23. Marina Agranov & Ran Eilat & Konstantin Sonin, 2020. "A Political Model of Trust," Working Papers 2020-50, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    24. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2022. "Contagious populists: The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    25. Dani Rodrik, 2021. "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 133-170, August.
    26. Neil Lee & Katy Morris & Thomas Kemeny, 2018. "Immobility and the Brexit vote," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 143-163.
    27. Philip McCann, 2020. "Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 256-267, February.
    28. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    29. Homola, Jonathan & Pereira, Miguel M. & Tavits, Margit, 2020. "Legacies of the Third Reich: Concentration Camps and Out-group Intolerance," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 573-590, May.
    30. Michael Kenny & Davide Luca, 2021. "The urban-rural polarisation of political disenchantment: an investigation of social and political attitudes in 30 European countries," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 565-582.
    31. Dinas, Elias & Matakos, Konstantinos & Xefteris, Dimitrios & Hangartner, Dominik, 2019. "Waking Up the Golden Dawn: Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Increase Support for Extreme-Right Parties?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 244-254, April.
    32. Cantoni, Davide & Hagemeister, Felix & Westcott, Mark, 2019. "Persistence and Activation of Right-Wing Political Ideology," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 143, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    33. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2001. "From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 1-92.
    34. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich & Rodrigo Pinto, 2022. "The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 199-217.
    35. Bart Los & Philip McCann & John Springford & Mark Thissen, 2017. "The mismatch between local voting and the local economic consequences of Brexit," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 786-799, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman, 2024. "The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2405, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2024.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    3. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Dávila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind versus unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline and the rise of populism in the USA and Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 951-977.
    4. Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2306, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2023.
    5. Sebastien Bourdin & André Torre, 2023. "Geography of contestation: A study on the Yellow Vest movement and the rise of populism in France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 214-235, January.
    6. Annie Tubadji & Thomas Colwill & Don Webber, 2021. "Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 247-277, April.
    7. Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2020. "The geography of EU discontent," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 737-753, June.
    8. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Eveline S. van Leeuwen & Solmaria Halleck Vega & Vera Hogenboom, 2021. "Does population decline lead to a “populist voting mark‐up”? A case study of the Netherlands," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 279-301, April.
    10. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    11. Connor, Dylan Shane & Berg, Aleksander K & Kemeny, Tom & Kedron, Peter, 2023. "Who gets left behind by left behind places?," SocArXiv nkydt, Center for Open Science.
    12. Luise Koeppen & Dimitris Ballas & Arjen Edzes & Sierdjan Koster, 2021. "Places that don't matter or people that don't matter? A multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of the geographies of discontent," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 221-245, April.
    13. Alessandra Faggian & Marco Modica & Félix Modrego & Giulia Urso, 2021. "One country, two populist parties: Voting patterns of the 2018 Italian elections and their determinants," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 397-413, April.
    14. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    15. McNeil, Andrew & Luca, Davide & Lee, Neil, 2023. "The long shadow of local decline: Birthplace economic adversity and long-term individual outcomes in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Enrique López-Bazo, 2021. "Does regional growth affect public attitudes towards the European Union?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 755-778, June.
    17. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2017. "The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it)," CEPR Discussion Papers 12473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia & Tura, Giulia, 2023. "Political Backlash to Refugee Settlement: Cultural and Economic Drivers," IZA Discussion Papers 16245, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Carl Leonard Fischer & Lorenz Meister, 2023. "Economic Determinants of Populism," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 145, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra, 2021. "Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 354-369, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:63:y:2023:i:2:p:409-445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.