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Golfing with Trump: social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US

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  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  • Lee, Neil
  • Lipp, Cornelius

Abstract

In 2000 Robert Putnam forecast that United States (US) democracy was at risk from the twin challenges of declining civic engagement and rising interpersonal inequality. Sixteen years later, his predictions were vindicated by the election of Donald Trump as president of the US. This paper analyses the extent to which the election of Donald Trump was related to levels of social capital and interpersonal inequalities and posits a third alternative: that the rise in vote for Trump in 2016 was the result of long-term economic and population decline in areas with strong social capital. This hypothesis is confirmed by the econometric analysis conducted for counties across the US. Long-term declines in employment and population – rather than in earnings, salaries, or wages – in places with relatively strong social capital propelled Donald Trump to the presidency. By contrast, low social capital and high interpersonal inequality were not connected to a surge in support for Trump. These results are robust to the introduction of control variables and different inequality measures. The analysis also shows that the discontent at the base of the Trump margin is not just a consequence of the 2008 crisis but had been brewing for a long time. Places in the US that remained cohesive but witnessed an enduring decline are no longer bowling alone, they are golfing with Trump.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Lee, Neil & Lipp, Cornelius, 2020. "Golfing with Trump: social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106530, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:106530
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    Cited by:

    1. Bert Provan, 2022. "CASE Annual Report 2021," CASE Reports casereport142, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    2. Luise Koeppen & Dimitris Ballas & Arjen Edzes & Sierdjan Koster, 2021. "Places that don't matter or people that don't matter? A multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of the geographies of discontent," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 221-245, April.
    3. Diemer, Andreas, 2023. "Divided we fall? The effect of manufacturing decline on the social capital of US communities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120355, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Maria Greve & Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2023. "Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 409-445, March.
    6. Sebastien Bourdin & André Torre, 2023. "Geography of contestation: A study on the Yellow Vest movement and the rise of populism in France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 214-235, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    populism; social capital; inequality; economic and demographic decline; Donald Trump; counties; US;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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