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The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap

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Listed:
  • Andres Rodriguez-Pose
  • Lewis Dijkstra
  • Hugo Poelman

Abstract

While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck —or are at risk of becoming stuck— in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbours and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for anti-system parties at the ballot box. In this paper we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU) —proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022— using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship is also robust to considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or to including parties that display more moderate levels of Euroscepticism.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman, 2024. "The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2405, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:egu:wpaper:2405
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    File URL: http://econ.geo.uu.nl/peeg/peeg2405.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    discontent; Euroscepticism; development trap; economic growth; employment; productivity; regions; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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