IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jpbect/v24y2022i5p1218-1244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model with transmission delays for COVID‐19 control: Theory and empirical assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Natali Hritonenko
  • Olga Yatsenko
  • Yuri Yatsenko

Abstract

The paper focuses on modeling of public health measures to control the COVID‐19 pandemic. The authors suggest a flexible integral model with distributed lags, which realistically describes COVID‐19 infectiousness period from clinical data. It contains susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR), susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR), and other epidemic models as special cases. The model is used for assessing how government decisions to lockdown and reopen the economy affect epidemic spread. The authors demonstrate essential differences in transition and asymptotic dynamics of the integral model and the SIR model after lockdown. The provided simulation on real data accurately describes several waves of the COVID‐19 epidemic in the United States and is in good correspondence with government actions to curb the epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Natali Hritonenko & Olga Yatsenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2022. "Model with transmission delays for COVID‐19 control: Theory and empirical assessment," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1218-1244, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:24:y:2022:i:5:p:1218-1244
    DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12554
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jpet.12554
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jpet.12554?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June.
    2. La Torre, Davide & Malik, Tufail & Marsiglio, Simone, 2020. "Optimal control of prevention and treatment in a basic macroeconomic–epidemiological model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 100-108.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 26867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & Andrés Carvajal & Shankha Chakraborty & Aditya Goenka, 2021. "The economics of epidemics and contagious diseases: An introduction," Post-Print hal-03164713, HAL.
    10. Natali Hritonenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2013. "Mathematical Modeling in Economics, Ecology and the Environment," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-4614-9311-2, September.
    11. Jovanovic, Boyan & Yatsenko, Yuri, 2012. "Investment in vintage capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 551-569.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Lee, Sokbae & Liao, Yuan & Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Youngki, 2021. "Sparse HP filter: Finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 158-180.
    3. Vandenbroucke Guillaume, 2022. "The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 131-158, January.
    4. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    6. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    7. Korolev, Ivan, 2021. "Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 63-85.
    8. Masayuki Morikawa, 2022. "Work‐from‐home productivity during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 508-527, April.
    9. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    10. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Julliard, Christian & Shi, Ran & Yuan, Kathy, 2023. "The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2125-2154.
    14. Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    19. Checo Ariadne & Grigoli Francesco & Mota Jose M., 2022. "Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 159-196, January.
    20. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2021. "Humans Against Virus or Humans Against Humans: A Game Theory Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Borradores de Economia 1160, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:24:y:2022:i:5:p:1218-1244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apettea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.