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An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models

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  • Ran Barniv
  • Mark Myring

Abstract

In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual‐income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo‐Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value‐relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.

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  • Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1087-1109, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006:i:7-8:p:1087-1109
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.00596.x
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    2. Roberto Ghiselli Ricci & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2014. "Axiomatization of residual income and generation of financial securities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 1257-1271, July.
    3. Eric Melse, 2008. "Accounting in three dimensions: a case for momentum revisited," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 334-350, August.
    4. Musaab Mousa & Judit Sági & Zoltán Zéman, 2021. "Brand and Firm Value: Evidence from Arab Emerging Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
    5. Francesco Bavagnoli & Giangiacomo Buzzoni & Corrado Mandirola & Ernesto Salinelli, 2022. "Exploring market multiples accuracy for professional practices: sales is the value anchor but profitability and location matter too," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 26(4), pages 1409-1442, December.
    6. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    7. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    8. Musaab Mousa & Saeed Nosratabadi & Judit Sagi & Amir Mosavi, 2021. "The Effect of Marketing Investment on Firm Value and Systematic Risk," Papers 2104.14301, arXiv.org.

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