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The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: a Quantile Regression Approach

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  • Pedro Pires
  • João Pedro Pereira
  • Luís Filipe Martins

Abstract

We study the empirical determinants of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads through quantile regressions. In addition to traditional variables, such as implied volatility, put skew, historical stock return, leverage, profitability, and ratings, the results indicate that CDS premiums are strongly determined by CDS illiquidity costs, measured by absolute bid†ask spreads. The quantile regression approach reveals that high†risk firms are more sensitive to changes in the explanatory variables that low†risk firms. Furthermore, the goodness†of†fit of the model increases with CDS premiums, which is consistent with the credit spread puzzle.

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  • Pedro Pires & João Pedro Pereira & Luís Filipe Martins, 2015. "The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: a Quantile Regression Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 556-589, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:21:y:2015:i:3:p:556-589
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2013.12029.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chamizo, Álvaro & Novales, Alfonso, 2020. "Looking through systemic credit risk: Determinants, stress testing and market value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Tu D. Q. Le & Dat T. Nguyen, 2020. "Capital Structure and Bank Profitability in Vietnam: A Quantile Regression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Giulia Livieri & Davide Radi & Elia Smaniotto, 2023. "Pricing Transition Risk with a Jump-Diffusion Credit Risk Model: Evidences from the CDS market," Papers 2303.12483, arXiv.org.
    5. Miriam Marra, 2017. "Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 811-853, October.
    6. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Mary S. Hill & Gary K. Taylor, 2023. "Default risk and earnings expectations: The role of contract maturity in the credit default swap market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4275-4298, December.
    8. Benbouzid, Nadia & Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Stojanovic, Aleksandar, 2022. "Bank credit risk and macro-prudential policies: Role of counter-cyclical capital buffer," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Asset pricing factors and bank CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-41.
    10. Alexander Blasberg & Rüdiger Kiesel & Luca Taschini, 2022. "Carbon Default Swap - Disentangling the Exposure to Carbon Risk through CDS," CESifo Working Paper Series 10016, CESifo.
    11. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "An international forensic perspective of the determinants of bank CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 60-70.
    12. Jiang, Hai & Zhang, Jinyi & Sun, Chen, 2020. "How does capital buffer affect bank risk-taking? New evidence from China using quantile regression," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118096, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Piljak, Vanja & Savvides, Andreas, 2019. "Financial development, government bond returns, and stability: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-96.
    15. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    16. Zhao, Yixiu & Upreti, Vineet & Cai, Yuzhi, 2021. "Stock returns, quantile autocorrelation, and volatility forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118092, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Kei-Ichiro Inaba, 2018. "Liquidity and Pricing of Credit Default Swaps in Japan: Evidence from a Benchmark Index for Corporate Debt Claims," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 111-143, August.
    19. Akari, Mohamed-Ali & Ben-Abdallah, Ramzi & Breton, Michèle & Dionne, Georges, 2021. "The impact of central clearing on the market for single-name credit default swaps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül & Özlem Önder, A., 2018. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-55.
    21. Mohamed S. Ahmed & John A. Doukas, 2021. "Revisiting disposition effect and momentum: a quantile regression perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1087-1128, April.
    22. Pelster, Matthias & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2016. "The determinants of CDS spreads: Evidence from the model space," Discussion Papers 43/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. ERER, Deniz, 2022. "The Asymmetrical Impact Of Policy Responses On Volatility Of Sovereign Default Swaps," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 26(3), pages 35-54, September.

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