IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ajarec/v65y2021i4p776-801.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of COVID‐19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries

Author

Listed:
  • Janine M. Dixon
  • Philip D. Adams
  • Nicholas Sheard

Abstract

We simulate the economic impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Australian economy using VURM, a detailed computable general equilibrium model for Australia. We identify five sources of economic perturbations: changes to productivity due to changing work practices, changes in household demand imposed by voluntary and mandated social distancing behaviour, changes in international trade due to a weakened world economy and severe curtailment of international travel, reduced population growth due to lower net migration and large debt‐financed fiscal stimulus. Variants of these shocks and associated recovery paths are simulated in VURM, with three scenarios describing potential recovery arcs. The macroeconomic and industry impacts are reported for each scenario. Ultimately, our focus is on the impact on output and employment in the agriculture and mining sectors, and on their likely recovery prospects. At the peak of economic impacts, output in these sectors declines by about 6 per cent relative to a no‐COVID baseline. Compared to the economy‐wide average, the decline in agriculture and mining output is small. This can be explained by relatively minor impacts on work practices, relatively low negative impacts on demand for intensive agriculture (helped by fiscal supports for households) and relatively low disruption to export demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine M. Dixon & Philip D. Adams & Nicholas Sheard, 2021. "The impacts of COVID‐19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 776-801, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:65:y:2021:i:4:p:776-801
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12459
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8489.12459?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali Madai Boukar & Olivier Mbock & Jean‐Marc Malambwe Kilolo, 2021. "The impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon: A general equilibrium analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 88-101, April.
    2. Paul Malliet & Frédéric Reynès & Gissela Landa & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Aurélien Saussay, 2020. "Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 867-883, August.
    3. Alexandre A. Porsse & Kênia B. de Souza & Terciane S. Carvalho & Vinícius A. Vale, 2020. "The economic impacts of COVID‐19 in Brazil based on an interregional CGE approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
    4. Philip Adams & Janine Dixon & Mark Horridge, 2015. "The Victoria University Regional Model (VURM): Technical Documentation, Version 1.0," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-254, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Robinson, Sherman & Levy, Stephanie & Hernández, Victor & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Arndt, Channing & van Seventer, Dirk & Pleitez, Marcelo, 2021. "Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries," IFPRI discussion papers 2015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6neh4df2kq9orrjiscv6839f6n is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deborah C. Peterson & Lin Crase, 2021. "Disaster, disruption, recovery and resilience: lessons from and for agricultural and resource‐based industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 767-775, October.
    2. Dzyuba, Yu. & Bakalova, I., 2023. "CGE models for resource-based economy: A comprehensive bibliometric analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 12-50.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shehabi, Manal, 2022. "Modeling long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price declines on Gulf oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Jiang, Shiqi & Lin, Xinyue & Qi, Lingli & Zhang, Yongqiang & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "The macro-economic and CO2 emissions impacts of COVID-19 and recovery policies in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 981-996.
    3. Roberto Roson & Camille Van der Vorst, 2022. "General Equilibrium Analyses of COVID-19 Impacts and Policies: An Historical Perspective," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Economics of COVID-19, volume 127, pages 57-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Imen Khanchel & Naima Lassoued & Rym Gargoury, 2023. "CSR and firm value: is CSR valuable during the COVID 19 crisis in the French market?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(2), pages 575-601, June.
    5. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    6. Feng, Chun-Chiang & Chang, Kuei-Feng & Lin, Jin-Xu & Lee, Tsung-Chen & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2022. "Toward green transition in the post Paris Agreement era: The case of Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Edward Sennoga & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 8-33, July.
    8. Janine Dixon, 2016. "Workforce Adaptation to the Cessation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(4), pages 301-315, December.
    9. J.M. Dixon & J. Nassios, 2018. "The Effectiveness of Investment Stimulus Policies in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-282, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Joshua Rosenberg & Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs, 2021. "COVID‐19 impact on SADC labour markets: Evidence from high‐frequency data and other sources," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 177-193, April.
    11. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    12. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Robson, Edward N. & Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2018. "A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 31-53.
    14. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia, 2023. "Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on electricity consumption – Evidence from Portugal and Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    15. Zhikang Xie & Xinglin Liu & Hina Najam & Qinghua Fu & Jawad Abbas & Ubaldo Comite & Laura Mariana Cismas & Andra Miculescu, 2022. "Achieving Financial Sustainability through Revenue Diversification: A Green Pathway for Financial Institutions in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Benjamin Fomba Kamga & Rodrigue Nda'Chi Deffo, 2022. "Analysis of the resilience strategies of Cameroonian companies in the face of Covid‐19 and their effects on activity," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 880-897, May.
    17. Edward Balistreri & Felix Baquedano & John C. Beghin, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 and associated policy responses on global food security," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 855-869, November.
    18. Xianglong Liu & Jason Nassios & James Giesecke, 2022. "Oil Supply Shocks and Tax Policy Responses in Australia: Insights from a Dynamic CGE Framework," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-336, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    19. Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Zangina Isshaq & Siaw Frimpong & Anokye Mohammed Adam & Ahmed Bossman & Oliver Asiamah, 2021. "COVID‐19 and food prices in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 102-113, April.
    20. Janine M. Dixon & Jason Nassios, 2018. "A Dynamic Economy-wide Analysis of Company Tax Cuts in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-287, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:65:y:2021:i:4:p:776-801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.