IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bis/bisqtr/1203g.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Yang
  • Kostas Tsatsaronis

Abstract

The returns on bank stocks rise and fall with the business cycle, making bank equity financing cheaper in the boom and dearer during a recession. This provides support for prudential tools that give incentives for banks to build capital buffers at times when the cost of equity is lower. In addition, banks with higher leverage face a higher cost of equity, which suggests that higher capital ratios are associated with lower funding costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Yang & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1203g
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1203g.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1203g.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. David Miles & Jing Yang & Gilberto Marcheggiano, 2013. "Optimal Bank Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 1-37, March.
    3. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    4. Choe, Hyuk & Masulis, Ronald W. & Nanda, Vikram, 1993. "Common stock offerings across the business cycle : Theory and evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-31, June.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    6. Michael R King, 2009. "The cost of equity for global banks: a CAPM perspective from 1990 to 2009," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    7. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    8. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-899, April.
    9. Claudio E. V. Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2005. "Accounting, prudential regulation and financial stability: elements of a synthesis," BIS Working Papers 180, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    2. Jason Nassios & John Madden & James Giesecke & Janine Dixon & Nhi Tran & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer & Philip Adams & John Freebairn, 2019. "The economic impact and efficiency of state and federal taxes in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-289, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Amine Ben Amar & Ikrame Ben Slimane & Makram Bellalah, 2017. "Are Non-Conventional Banks More Resilient than Conventional Ones to Financial Crisis?," Working Papers hal-01455752, HAL.
    4. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "What can commercial property performance reveal about bank valuations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Nicodème, Gaëtan & Langedijk, Sven & Rossi, Alessandro & Pagano, Andrea, 2015. "Debt Bias in Corporate Income Taxation and the Costs of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 10616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. J.M. Dixon & J. Nassios, 2018. "The Effectiveness of Investment Stimulus Policies in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-282, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. setiawan, chandra & Tjiasaka, Felicia Putri, 2017. "Technical Efficiency and the Determinants of Price to Book Value: An Empirical Study of Category-IV Banks in Indonesia Stock Exchange," INA-Rxiv aruzq, Center for Open Science.
    8. McInerney, Niall & O'Brien, Martin & Wosser, Michael & Zavalloni, Luca, 2022. "Rightsizing Bank Capital for Small, Open Economies," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Clark, Brian & Jones, Jonathan & Malmquist, David, 2023. "Leverage and the cost of capital for U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2018. "EU banks after the crisis: sinners in the hands of angry markets," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 24-51, May.
    11. William R. Cline, 2015. "Testing the Modigliani-Miller Theorem of Capital Structure Irrelevance for Banks," Working Paper Series WP15-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD," IMF Working Papers 2014/056, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola & Volker Ziemann, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1003, OECD Publishing.
    14. Niţoi, Mihai & Clichici, Dorina & Moagăr-Poladian, Simona, 2019. "The effects of prudential policies on bank leverage and insolvency risk in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-160.
    15. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Fernández Lafuerza & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Estimating the cost of equity for financial institutions," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue MAY.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Roman, Raluca A., 2022. "Geographic deregulation and banks’ cost of equity capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Luis Fernández Lafuerza & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Estimating the cost of equity for financial institutions," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Spring.
    4. Luis Fernández Lafuerza & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Estimating the cost of equity for financial institutions," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue MAY.
    5. Abugri, Benjamin A. & Dutta, Sandip, 2014. "Are we overestimating REIT idiosyncratic risk? Analysis of pricing effects and persistence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 249-259.
    6. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    7. Jyri Kinnunen & Minna Martikainen, 2017. "Expected Returns and Idiosyncratic Risk: Industry-Level Evidence from Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2528-2544, November.
    8. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    9. Xuan Vinh Vo & Kevin Daly, 2008. "Volatility amongst firms in the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 Index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 569-582.
    10. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
    11. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6605, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Stulz, René M., 2016. "Why does idiosyncratic risk increase with market risk?," CFS Working Paper Series 533, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Drew, Michael E. & Naughton, Tony & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2004. "Is idiosyncratic volatility priced?: Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 349-366.
    14. Miralles-Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María del Mar & Miralles-Quirós, José Luis, 2012. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk: The Spanish case," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 261-271.
    15. Michael Drew & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Volatility: Evidence from Asia," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 107, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    16. Cameron Truong & Thu Ha Nguyen & Thanh Huynh, 2021. "Customer satisfaction and the cost of capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 293-342, March.
    17. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
    18. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "What can commercial property performance reveal about bank valuations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    20. Simon Oh & Jessica A. Wachter, 2018. "Cross-sectional Skewness," NBER Working Papers 25113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1203g. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.