IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v113y2021ics0261560620303065.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What can commercial property performance reveal about bank valuations?

Author

Listed:
  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel
  • Takáts, Előd

Abstract

We test whether commercial property performance, proxied by real estate investment trust (REIT) prices, can inform us about bank equity prices. Using data from the United States, the euro area and Japan, we show that REIT prices can predict bank equity prices. Furthermore, a “commercial property factor” adds significant explanatory power to both the CAPM and the 3-factor Fama-French model. At the same time, quantile regressions show that this factor becomes particularly prominent during downturns. It accounts for around half of the drop in average bank valuations during the great financial crisis and, again, during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "What can commercial property performance reveal about bank valuations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:113:y:2021:i:c:s0261560620303065
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560620303065
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102350?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    2. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    3. Jing Yang & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    4. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 57-127.
    5. Bilyana Bogdanova & Ingo Fender & Előd Takáts, 2018. "The ABCs of bank PBRs," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 57-127.
    7. Chiang, I-Hsuan Ethan & Hughen, W. Keener, 2017. "Do oil futures prices predict stock returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-141.
    8. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    10. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    12. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    13. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2012. "Bank valuation and accounting discretion during a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 614-634.
    14. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Shimada, Junji & Li, Kui-Wai, 2016. "The impacts of the 2008 and 2011 crises on the Japan REIT market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-40.
    15. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    18. Cooper, Michael J. & Jackson, William III & Patterson, Gary A., 2003. "Evidence of predictability in the cross-section of bank stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 817-850, May.
    19. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2012-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Michael R King, 2009. "The cost of equity for global banks: a CAPM perspective from 1990 to 2009," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    21. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Kovner & Peter Van Tassel, 2022. "Evaluating Regulatory Reform: Banks' Cost of Capital and Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1313-1367, August.
    2. İbrahim Ethem Güney & Abdullah Kazdal & Doruk Küçüksaraç & Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz, 2021. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Firm Value: Evidence from Nonfinancial Firms Listed on Borsa Istanbul," Springer Books, in: Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz (ed.), Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics, edition 1, pages 141-165, Springer.
    3. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Jordan Bowes & Marcel Ausloos, 2021. "Financial Risk and Better Returns through Smart Beta Exchange-Traded Funds?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-30, June.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. S. Ozornov, 2015. "Validity Of Fama And French Model On Rts Index," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(4), pages 22-43.
    8. Rajaratnam, Myuran & Rajaratnam, Bala & Rajaratnam, Kanshukan, 2014. "A novel equity valuation and capital allocation model for use by long-term value-investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 483-494.
    9. Sabyasachi Mohapatra & Arun Kumar Misra & Marimuthu Murali Kannan, 2020. "Risk factors explaining returns anomaly in emerging market banks – study on Indian banking system," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 417-433, July.
    10. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    11. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Montone, Maurizio, 2023. "Beta, value, and growth: Do dichotomous risk-preferences explain stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    13. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    14. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    15. Baek, Seungho & Bilson, John F.O., 2015. "Size and value risk in financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 295-326.
    16. Fabian T. Lutzenberger, 2015. "Multifactor Models and their Consistency with the ICAPM: Evidence from the European Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 1014-1052, November.
    17. Kaserer Christoph & Hanauer Matthias X., 2017. "25 Jahre Fama-French-Modell: Erklärungsgehalt, Anomalien und praktische Implikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 98-116, June.
    18. Johan Knif & James W. Kolari & Gregory Koutmos & Seppo Pynnönen, 2019. "Measuring the relative return contribution of risk factors," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 263-272, July.
    19. Petros Messis & Achilleas Zapranis, 2014. "Asset pricing with time-varying betas for stocks traded on S&P 500," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(36), pages 4508-4518, December.
    20. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; Banks; Commercial property; Financial stability; Real estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:113:y:2021:i:c:s0261560620303065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.