IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aud/audfin/v14y2016i142p1149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aspects of the impact of interest rate development on the probability of default

Author

Listed:
  • Luminita Gabriela ISTRATE

    (Academy of Economic Studies from Bucharest)

  • Bogdan Stefan IONESCU

    (Academy of Economic Studies from Bucharest)

  • Maria-Monica HARALAMBIE

    (Academy of Economic Studies from Bucharest)

Abstract

The acceptance of banking risks and their control is one of the key moments in banking activity. Success in banking management is possible only if the risks accepted by banks are reasonable, can be controlled and do not exceed the financial resources and their expertise. The occurrence of the interest rate risk is due to the holding a portfolio of assets and liabilities with fixed interest, different in terms of maturities and price and in terms of ownership of assets and liabilities with variable interest that adapts differently to interest rate fluctuations. The estimation of the probability of default is the first step to determine and assess risk. The major issues in the estimation of PD are generated by the limitation of the required information. This work captures the impact of interest rate on the PD at maturity of loans. The analysis covers the period January 2013 - December 2015 using data on interest rates in the interbank market, the type of loans granted and the number of people that recored outstanding loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Luminita Gabriela ISTRATE & Bogdan Stefan IONESCU & Maria-Monica HARALAMBIE, 2016. "Aspects of the impact of interest rate development on the probability of default," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 14(142), pages 1149-1149, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aud:audfin:v:14:y:2016:i:142:p:1149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revista.cafr.ro/temp/Article_9505.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    2. Gomez, Matthieu & Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2021. "Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk and the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 543-570.
    3. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    4. Santoso, Wimboh & Montgomery, Heather & Besar, Dwityapoetra & Hanh, Tran, 2005. "Coordinated failure? a cross-country bank failure prediction model," MPRA Paper 33144, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ren-Raw Chen & Xiaolin Cheng & Liuren Wu, 2013. "Dynamic Interactions Between Interest-Rate and Credit Risk: Theory and Evidence on the Credit Default Swap Term Structure-super-," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 403-441.
    6. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    2. Christian Bittner & Diana Bonfim & Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens & Carla Soares, 2022. "The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 149, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Lee, Seung Jung & Liu, Lucy Qian & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk-taking spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in the global market for U.S. dollar corporate loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Katuka, Blessing, 2017. "Credit risk dynamics in listed local banks in Zimbabwe (2009-2013)," MPRA Paper 92687, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    6. Bubeck, Johannes & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231.
    7. Anatoli Segura & Alonso Villacorta, 2020. "Demand for safety, risky loans: A model of securitization," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1260, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Jaiswal, Sreeja & Balietti, Anca & Schäffer, Daniel, 2023. "Environmental Protection and Labor Market Composition," Working Papers 0736, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher Palmer, 2016. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 22638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Seung Jung Lee & Lucy Qian Liu & Viktors Stebunovs, 2017. "Risk Taking and Interest Rates: Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market," IMF Working Papers 2017/016, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2010. "Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 189-198, July.
    13. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    14. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    15. Ahnert, Toni & Anand, Kartik & König, Philipp Johann, 2022. "Real interest rates, bank borrowing, and fragility," Discussion Papers 48/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    17. Muhammad Waqas & Nudrat Fatima & Aryan Khan & Muhammad Arif, 2017. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Comparative Study of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 51-68, January.
    18. Gutiérrez López, Cristina & Abad González, Julio, 2014. "¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-70.
    19. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    20. Sebastian Di Tella & Pablo Kurlat, 2021. "Why Are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 295-340, October.
    21. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Flamini, Alessandro, 2022. "Institutional mandates for macroeconomic and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability of default (PD); interest rate; credit risk; financial institutions; interest rate risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aud:audfin:v:14:y:2016:i:142:p:1149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dumitru Valentin Florentin (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://revista.cafr.ro/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.