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Ethics, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomics

Author

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  • Mariusz Maziarz

    (Wrocław University of Economics, Poland)

Abstract

In this article, I focus on the difference in moral judgment of macroeconomic interventions between the deterministic world of a thought experiment and the uncertain reality. The macroeconomic theory coined by Keynes is, in its most popular reading, deterministic and justifies interventionism. However, incorporating uncertainty into the analysis leads to the contrary result. Namely, if economic output is a random process, such as Gaussian white noise or a stochastic Markov chain, then intervening can bring either economic recovery or inflationary pressure and a next bubble. In the trolley‑problem philosophy, the one who pulls the lever instead of the trolley itself is believed to be guilty of the death of an innocent passer‑by standing on the side track. Similarly, if the Federal Reserve decided to intervene and failed (causing a bubble on the house market, instantiating), their monetary policy can be said to be a cause of the financial crisis. Therefore, governments should refrain from interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Maziarz, 2017. "Ethics, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomics," Annales. Ethics in Economic Life, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, vol. 20(4), pages 51-63, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ann:journl:v:20:y:2017:i:4:p:51-63
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    File URL: http://www.annalesonline.uni.lodz.pl/archiwum/2017/2017_4_maziarz_51_63.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    4. Mariusz Maziarz, 2017. "The Reinhart-Rogoff controversy as an instance of the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 213-225, July.
    5. Alessandro Lanteri & Chiara Chelini & Salvatore Rizzello, 2008. "An Experimental Investigation of Emotions and Reasoning in the Trolley Problem," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 83(4), pages 789-804, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; monetary policy; fiscal policy; recession; macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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