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Farmgate, Processor, and Consumer Price Transmissions in the Wheat Sector


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  • Babula, Ronald A.
  • Bessler, David A.


Time series techniques (vector autoregression or VAR) are employed to model a three-price dynamic system of the farmgate, processor, and consumer prices of wheat-related goods. An increase (presumably drought-induced) in farmgate wheat price is simulated to determine impacts on processor and consumer prices in the wheat sector. Several findings emerge. First, the increase in farm wheat price (PF-increase) may be expected to immediately generate processor price increases which are statistically significant for almost a year. Second, the PF-increase is expected to generate wheat-related consumer price increases, which are most significant for 22 months. Consumer price increases of wheat-related goods are expected to peak in strength at about the 8-month point following the PF-increase. And third, the consumer price increases are expected to be more gradual, less acute, but of longer duration than the processor price rises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics Research.

Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 ()

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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:138802

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Keywords: vector autoregression (VAR); Kloek-Van Dyk t-values; drought; decompositions of forecast error variance; farmgate; processor or industrial; and consumer prices of wheat-based goods; farm/nonfarm price transmissions; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management;


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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Babula, Ronald A. & Romain, Robert F.J., 1991. "Canada's Broiler Supply Management Program: A Shield From U.S. Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 4.
  2. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2003. "Dynamic Relationships Among Selected U.S. Commodity-Based, Value Added Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Working Paper ID Series 15879, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
  3. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.


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