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Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy

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  • McPhail, Lihong Lu
  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Muhammad, Andrew

Abstract

Despite extensive literature on contributing factors to the high commodity prices and volatility in the recent years, few have examined these causal factors together in one analysis.We quantify empirically the relative importance of three factors: global demand, speculation, and energy prices/policy in explaining corn price volatility. A structural vector auto-regression model is developed and variance decomposition is applied to measure the contribution of each factor in explaining corn price variation. We find that speculation is important, but only in the short run. However, in the long run, energy is the most important followed by global demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 03 (August)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:130287

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Related research

Keywords: corn; global demand; energy; price volatility; speculation; structural vector autoregression; Marketing; Q11; C32; G2; Q4;

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  1. Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
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Cited by:
  1. Hao, Na & Seong, Byeongchan & Park, Cheolwoo & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael, 2013. "Drought, Biofuel, and Livestock," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149957, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Hao, Na & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2013. "Food before Biodiesel Fuel?," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143078, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  5. Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Discussion: Causes of Agricultural and Food Price Inflation and Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
  6. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(04), November.
  7. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Measuring Maize Price Volatility in Swaziland using ARCH/GARCH approach," MPRA Paper 51840, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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