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Quantile Regression Estimates of Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function of forecast lead time are consistent with theoretical forecast variance expressions while avoiding assumptions of normality and optimality. Based on out-of-sample accuracy tests over 1995/96–2006/07, quantile regression methods produced intervals consistent with the target confidence level. Overall, this study demonstrates that empirical approaches may be used to construct accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99120
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:99120

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: commodity; evaluating forecasts; government forecasting; judgmental forecasting; prediction intervals; price forecasting; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis;

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  1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2004. "Bayesian learning in financial markets: Testing for the relevance of information precision in price discovery," CFR Working Papers 04-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  2. Taylor, James W. & Bunn, Derek W., 1999. "Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for combinations of forecasts: A simulation study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-339, July.
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