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Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents

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A. A. Brown
L. C. G. Rogers

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Abstract

This paper will examine a model with many agents, each of whom has a different belief about the dynamics of a risky asset. The agents are Bayesian and so learn about the asset over time. All agents are assumed to have a finite (but random) lifetime. When an agent dies, he passes his wealth (but not his knowledge) onto his heir. As a result, the agents never become sure of the dynamics of the risky asset. We derive expressions for the stock price and riskless rate. We then use numerical examples to exhibit their behaviour.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4953
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Quantitative Finance Papers with number 0907.4953.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.4953

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Min Fan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Basak, Suleyman, 2000. "A model of dynamic equilibrium asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and extraneous risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 63-95, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Basak, Suleyman, 2005. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2849-2881, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Elyes Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Schinkel, Maarten Pieter & Tuinstra, Jan & Vermeulen, Dries, 2002. "Convergence of Bayesian learning to general equilibrium in mis-specified models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 483-508, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2003. "Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 263-292, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative investor behavior and learning," Working Papers 96-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  13. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield, 2008. "An Examination of Heterogeneous Beliefs with a Short-Sale Constraint in a Dynamic Economy," Review of Finance, Oxford University Press for European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 323-364. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2004. "Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 795-829, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Li, Tao, 2007. "Heterogeneous beliefs, asset prices, and volatility in a pure exchange economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1697-1727, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hiroyuki Nakata, 2007. "A Model of Financial Markets with Endogenously Correlated Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 431-452, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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