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Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA

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Author Info

  • Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge
  • Alexander, Corinne E.
  • Goodhue, Rachael E.

Abstract

Controversy over the use of genetically engineered (GE) crops may have induced some farmers to disadopt these seeds, making a traditional diffusion model inappropriate. In this study, we develop and estimate a dynamic diffusion model, examine the diffusion paths of GE corn, soybeans, and cotton, predict the adoption of those crops over the next two years, and explore the main determinants of the diffusion rate. Our estimates indicate that future growth of Bt crops will be slower or negative, depending mainly on the infestation levels of the target pests. Adoption of herbicide-tolerant soybeans and cotton will continue to increase, unless consumer sentiment in the United States changes radically.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31479
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 31 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31479

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Web page: http://www.narea.org/
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Related research

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries;

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Cited by:
  1. Yoo, Do-il, 2012. "Individual and Social Learning in Bio-technology Adoption: The Case of GM Corn in the U.S," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124975, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Gyau, Amos & Voss, Julian & Spiller, Achim & Enneking, Ulrich, 2009. "Farmer Acceptance of Genetically Modified seeds in Germany: Results of a Cluster Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 12(4).
  3. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2006. "Assessing The Response Of Farm Households To Dairy Policy Reform In Israel," Discussion Papers 7134, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
  4. Swinton, Scott M., 2004. "Assessing Economic Impacts Of Natural Resource Management Using Economic Surplus," Staff Papers 11668, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  5. Gedikoglu, Haluk & McCann, Laura M.J., 2009. "Disadoption of Agricultural Practices by Livestock Farmers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49404, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  6. Aldana, Ursula & Foltz, Jeremy D. & Barham, Bradford L. & Useche, Pilar, 2010. "Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61821, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. Gardner, Justin G. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "Genetically Modified Crops and Labor Savings in US Crop Production," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34919, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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