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Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives

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  • Jonathan Koomey
  • Paul Craig
  • Ashok Gadgil
  • David Lorenzetti
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    Abstract

    One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg s retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

    Volume (Year): Volume24 (2003)
    Issue (Month): Number 4 ()
    Pages: 75-92

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    Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-04-a04

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    Cited by:
    1. Irene Scher & Jonathan Koomey, 2011. "Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 473-479, February.
    2. Koomey, Jonathan & Hultman, Nathan E., 2007. "A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5630-5642, November.
    3. Keirstead, James & Jennings, Mark & Sivakumar, Aruna, 2012. "A review of urban energy system models: Approaches, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3847-3866.
    4. Sohn, Ira, 2007. "Long-term energy projections: What lessons have we learned?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4574-4584, September.

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