We distinguish between policy and "destiny" explanations of Africa's slow growth during the past three decades. Policies were poor: high export taxation and inefficient public service delivery, and "destiny" was adverse: landlocked, tropical locations, and terms of trade deterioration. During the 1990s, Africa's economic policies improved, although with considerable variation both between countries and between policies: trade and exchange rate policies improved much more than service delivery. Thus, the differing explanations of past slow growth imply different predictions for growth in the coming decade. We argue that poor public economic services are likely to be the binding constraint.
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