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Dry times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's growth performance

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  • BARRIOS, Salvador
  • BERTINELLI, Luisito
  • STROBL, Eric

Abstract

While there have been some references in the literature to the potential role of the general decline in rainfall in sub-Saharan African nations on their poor growth performance relative to other developing countries, this avenue remains empirically unexplored. In this paper we use a new cross-country panel climatic data set in an economic growth framework to explore the issue. Our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for Africa, but not for other developing countries. Depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall, we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between 13 and 36 per cent of today's gap in African GDP per capita relative to rest of the developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • BARRIOS, Salvador & BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Dry times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's growth performance," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2003061
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    Cited by:

    1. Alison Comfort, 2016. "Long-term effect of in utero conditions on maternal survival later in life: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 493-527, April.
    2. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    3. Alison B. Comfort, 2016. "Long-term effect of in utero conditions on maternal survival later in life: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 493-527, April.
    4. Jean-pascal Bassino & Celine Gimet & Stephane Quefelec, 2018. "Climate and output variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 1950-2000," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1811-1822.
    5. Wim Naudé, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Naudé, Wim & Bezuidenhout, Henri, 2012. "Remittances provide resilience against disasters in Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2012-026, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Bruno CRUZ & Aude POMMERET, 2003. "Public capital and private investment, a real option approach," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    8. Wim Naudé, 2011. "Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of the Big Four," Working Papers 2011/34, Maastricht School of Management.
    9. Wim Naudé & Henri Bezuidenhout, 2014. "Migrant Remittances Provide Resilience Against Disasters in Africa," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 79-90, March.
    10. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56321, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development; Africa; climate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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