IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v112y2022p476-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Signing Out Confounding Shocks in Variance-Maximizing Identification Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Neville Francis
  • Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Abstract

Recent papers have examined the dominant drivers of business cycles using variance-maximizing techniques for identification. However, identification is poor when shocks other than the target of interest play large roles in driving volatility at the targeted frequency or horizon, leading them to capture a "hybrid" shock. This paper suggests a simple fix that lowers biases in the impulse responses. The fix is to include theoretically informed sign and magnitude restrictions at the identification stage of the vector autoregression. Applying this to US data, we find an equal role for demand and supply shocks in generating business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Neville Francis & Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, 2022. "Signing Out Confounding Shocks in Variance-Maximizing Identification Methods," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 476-480, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:476-80
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221046
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E168681V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221046.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221046.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pandp.20221046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2018. "Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 137-150.
    2. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    3. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2020. "Identification robust empirical evidence on the Euler equation in open economies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Lin, Tsu-ting Tim, 2015. "Working capital requirement and the unemployment volatility puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 201-217.
    5. Luca Guerrieri & Dale Henderson & Jinill Kim, 2014. "Modeling Investment‐Sector Efficiency Shocks: When Does Disaggregation Matter?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 891-917, August.
    6. Leon W. Berkelmans, 2008. "Imperfect information and monetary models: multiple shocks and their consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 157-161.
    8. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    9. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1513-1526, July.
    10. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    11. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
    12. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2018. "The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 206-236.
    14. Octavio Portolano Machado & Carlos Carvalho & Tiago Berriel, 2015. "Lift-off Uncertainty: What Can We Infer From the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections?," 2015 Meeting Papers 903, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    16. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    17. João Madeira, 2013. "Simulation and estimation of macroeconomic models in Dynare," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 25, pages 593-608, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2010. "What can an open-economy DSGE model tell us about Hong Kong's housing market?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2010, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Dennis, Richard, 2010. "When is discretion superior to timeless perspective policymaking?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 266-277, April.
    20. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:476-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.