IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v107y2017i5p369-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Fatih Karahan
  • Serdar Ozkan
  • Jae Song

Abstract

Drawing on administrative data from the Social Security Administration, we find that individuals that go through a long period of non-employment suffer large and long-term earnings losses (around 35-40 percent) compared to individuals with similar age and previous earnings histories. Importantly, these differences depend on past earnings, and are largest at the bottom and top of the earnings distribution. Focusing on workers that are employed 10 years after a period of long-term non-employment, we find much smaller earnings losses (8-10 percent). Furthermore, the large earnings losses of low-income individuals are almost entirely due to employment effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2017. "Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 369-373, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:369-73
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171012
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=-oq3KeRfKJhekVLNfoRjxBRMJlI-3Hyk
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=1ebzDjTVwUinZCkneEv52PxpKHyzSIpT
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=O654CsysPT3-rISpOfR3VxcpqjhUQHyh
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fatih Karahan & Jae Song & Serdar Ozkan, 2018. "Sources of Inequality in Earnings Growth Over the Life Cycle," 2018 Meeting Papers 313, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Filomena, Mattia & Picchio, Matteo, 2023. "You'll never walk alone: Unemployment, social networks and leisure activities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1346, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Lous, Bjorn, 2020. "On free markets, income inequality, happiness and trust," Other publications TiSEM e2480eed-722b-4e2a-8e29-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    5. Mark Garmaise & Yaron Levi & Hanno Lustig, 2020. "Spending Less After (Seemingly) Bad News," NBER Working Papers 27010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Hospido, Laura & Ruggieri, Alessandro, 2023. "Dual returns to experience," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    9. Reto Foellmi & Isabel Z. Martínez, 2018. "Inequality in Switzerland: A Haven of Stability?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 19-25, July.
    10. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer & Terry A Yip, 2019. "Age-Income Dynamics Over The Life Course: Cohort Transition Patterns In Relative Income Based On Canadian Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, McMaster University.
    11. Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_131, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    12. repec:ces:ifofor:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:19-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bjorn Lous & Johan Graafland, 2022. "Who Becomes Unhappy when Income Inequality Increases?," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 299-316, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    2. Kristy Fan & Tyler J. Fisher & Andrew A. Samwick, 2021. "The Insurance Value of Financial Aid," NBER Working Papers 28669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Chen, Li-Shiun & Wang, Ping & Yao, Yao, 2018. "Power of personalized smoking cessation: A unified lifecycle framework for policy evaluation," Working Paper Series 20333, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Jean‐Michel Lasry & Pierre‐Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2016. "The Dynamics of Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2071-2111, November.
    6. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.
    7. Schoefer, Benjamin & Mui, Preston, 2019. "Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labor Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin," CEPR Discussion Papers 14209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mr. Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," IMF Working Papers 2019/219, International Monetary Fund.
    9. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Kyle Matoba & Şelale Tüzel, 2018. "Proposition 13: An Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-51, April.
    11. Brian Bell & Nicholas Bloom & Jack Blundell, 2021. "This time is not so different: income dynamics during the Covid-19 recession," POID Working Papers 012, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Pora, Pierre & Wilner, Lionel, 2020. "A decomposition of labor earnings growth: Recovering Gaussianity?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin, 2018. "Skewed Wealth Distributions: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1261-1291, December.
    14. Rosario Aldunate, 2019. "Returns to Work Experience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 855, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    16. Felipe Alves & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "A Further Look at the Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in HANK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 521-559, December.
    17. Heejeong Kim, 2022. "Inequality, Disaster risk, and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 187-216, July.
    18. Mariacristina De Nardi & Fella Giulio & Fang Yang, 2016. "Piketty’s Book and Macro Models of Wealth Inequality," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Shengxing Zhang & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "Intangibles, Inequality and Stagnation," 2017 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Sebastian Graves, 2020. "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1298, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:369-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.