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Financial Entanglement: A Theory of Incomplete Integration, Leverage, Crashes, and Contagion

Author

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  • Nicolae Gârleanu
  • Stavros Panageas
  • Jianfeng Yu

Abstract

We propose a unified model of limited market integration, asset-price determination, leveraging, and contagion. Investors and firms are located on a circle, and access to markets involves participation costs that increase with distance. Due to a complementarity between participation and leverage decisions, the equilibrium may exhibit diverse leverage and participation choices across investors, although investors are ex ante identical. Small changes in market-access costs can cause a change in the type of equilibrium, leading to discontinuous price changes, deleveraging, and portfolio-flow reversals. Moreover, the market is subject to contagion—an adverse shock to investors in some locations affects prices everywhere. (JEL D83, G11, G12, G32, G35)

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2015. "Financial Entanglement: A Theory of Incomplete Integration, Leverage, Crashes, and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 1979-2010, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:7:p:1979-2010
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20131076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
    2. Owen A. Lamont, 2012. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 1-30.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Phelan, Gregory & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Securitized markets, international capital flows, and global welfare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 571-592.
    2. Malamud, Semyon, 2016. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of ETFs," CEPR Discussion Papers 11469, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2021. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Papers 2102.06404, arXiv.org.
    4. Laura Gianfagna & Armando Rungi, 2017. "Does corporate control matter to financial volatility?," Working Papers 09/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Nov 2017.
    5. Gary B. Gorton & Alexander K. Zentefis, 2019. "Social Progress and Corporate Culture," NBER Working Papers 25484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2018. "Intermediary Asset Pricing and the Financial Crisis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 173-197, November.
    7. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2017. "Joint tests of contagion with applications to financial crises," CAMA Working Papers 2017-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Chen, William & Phelan, Gregory, 2021. "International coordination of macroprudential policies with capital flows and financial asymmetries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 181-200, July.
    10. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Kim, Soohun & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2020. "Self-fulfilling arbitrages necessitate crash risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Amir Akbari & Francesca Carrieri & Aytek Malkhozov, 2017. "Reversals in Global Market Integration and Funding Liquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1202, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Iachan, Felipe S. & Silva, Dejanir & Zi, Chao, 2022. "Under-diversification and idiosyncratic risk externalities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1227-1250.
    13. Malamud, Semyon & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Market Integration and Global Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
    15. Gârleanu, Nicolae & Panageas, Stavros, 2021. "What to expect when everyone is expecting: Self-fulfilling expectations and asset-pricing puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 54-73.
    16. Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Hanno Lustig & Lei Zhang, 2017. "Complex Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 23476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2018. "Dynamic Consequences of Monetary Policy for Financial Stability," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    18. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    19. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    20. Stavros Panageas, 2020. "The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 26974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Xuewen Liu, 2023. "A Model of Systemic Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 731-793, April.
    22. Zentefis, Alexander K., 2020. "Bank net worth and frustrated monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 687-699.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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