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Lending Booms, Smart Bankers, and Financial Crises

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  • Anjan Thakor

Abstract

This paper develops a theory that explains why financial crises follow profitable lending booms. When agents exhibit the "availability heuristic" and there is a long period of banking profitability, all agents—banks, their investors, and regulators—end up in an "availability cascade," overestimating bankers' risk-management skills and underestimating the probability that observed outcomes are due to good luck. Consequently, banks profitably invest in riskier assets. Subsequently, if a public signal reveals that outcomes are luck-driven, investors withdraw funds, liquidity evaporates, and a crisis ensues. A loan resale market improves liquidity but increases the probability of a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Anjan Thakor, 2015. "Lending Booms, Smart Bankers, and Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 305-309, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:5:p:305-09
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thakor, Anjan V., 2012. "Incentives to innovate and financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 130-148.
    2. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
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    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.
    3. Wu, Ji & Guo, Mengmeng & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2019. "Market power and risk-taking of banks: Some semiparametric evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
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    5. Huang, Sheng & Maharjan, Johan & Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Disagreement-induced CEO turnover," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. Kozubovska, Mariolia, 2017. "The effect of US bank holding companies’ exposure to asset-backed commercial paper conduits on the information opacity and systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 530-545.
    7. Damiano B. Silipo & Giovanni Verga & Sviatlana Hlebik, 2023. "Managerial Beliefs and Banking Behavior," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 401-431, December.
    8. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Jang, Yeejin, 2021. "Who Lends Before Banking Crises? Evidence from the International Syndicated Loan Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 15737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Lo, Andrew W. & Thakor, Richard T., 2023. "Financial intermediation and the funding of biomedical innovation: A review," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Allen N. Berger & Onesime Epouhe & Raluca Roman, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt," Working Papers 21-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Fintech and banking: What do we know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    12. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Alexandra POPESCU, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Long-Run Risk-Taking," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2409, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Antonio D’Amato, 2020. "Capital structure, debt maturity, and financial crisis: empirical evidence from SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 919-941, December.
    14. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    15. Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The highs and the lows: A theory of credit risk assessment and pricing through the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-29.
    16. Zeitun, Rami & Temimi, Akram & Mimouni, Karim, 2017. "Do financial crises alter the dynamics of corporate capital structure? Evidence from GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 21-33.
    17. Liang Liu & Hang Le & Steve Thompson, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and bank systemic risk: Evidence from U.S. bank holding companies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2977-2996, July.
    18. Acharya, Viral V. & Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The dark side of liquidity creation: Leverage and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 4-21.
    19. Anjan V. Thakor, 2023. "Finance research: What are the new frontiers?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 453-462, August.
    20. Gene Ambrocio, 2020. "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 263-282, January.
    21. David Peón & Manel Antelo, 2019. "Do bad borrowers hurt good borrowers? A model of biased banking competition," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 5-17, February.
    22. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman & Lars Norden & Raluca A. Roman & Gregory F. Udell & Teng Wang, 2021. "Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 21-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    23. Huang, Qiubin & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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