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Modeling and forecasting (un)reliable realized covariances for more reliable financial decisions

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. On Forecasting Variation and Covariation
    by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2016-05-02 06:01:00

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2019. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 221-240.
  2. Lv, Fei & Yang, Chen & Fang, Libing, 2020. "Do the crude oil futures of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange improve asset allocation of Chinese petrochemical-related stocks?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  3. Andrea Bucci & Michele Palma & Chao Zhang, 2024. "Geometric Deep Learning for Realized Covariance Matrix Forecasting," Papers 2412.09517, arXiv.org.
  4. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2021. "Realized volatility forecasting: Robustness to measurement errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 44-57.
  5. Matias Quiroz & Laleh Tafakori & Hans Manner, 2024. "Forecasting realized covariances using HAR-type models," Papers 2412.10791, arXiv.org.
  6. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
  7. Bauwens, Luc & Xu, Yongdeng, 2025. "The contribution of realized variance–covariance models to the economic value of volatility timing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1165-1183.
  8. Li, Dan & Drovandi, Christopher & Clements, Adam, 2024. "Outlier-robust methods for forecasting realized covariance matrices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 392-408.
  9. Sven Husmann & Antoniya Shivarova & Rick Steinert, 2019. "Cross-validated covariance estimators for high-dimensional minimum-variance portfolios," Papers 1910.13960, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  10. Bauwens, Luc & Xu, Yongdeng, 2023. "The contribution of realized covariance models to the economic value of volatility timing," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  11. Li, Yifan & Nolte, Ingmar & Vasios, Michalis & Voev, Valeri & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Weighted Least Squares Realized Covariation Estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  12. Carlo Drago & Andrea Scozzari, 2022. "Evaluating conditional covariance estimates via a new targeting approach and a networks-based analysis," Papers 2202.02197, arXiv.org.
  13. Jianqing Fan & Donggyu Kim & Minseok Shin & Yazhen Wang, 2024. "Factor and Idiosyncratic VAR-Ito Volatility Models for Heavy-Tailed High-Frequency Financial Data," Working Papers 202415, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  14. Vassallo, Danilo & Buccheri, Giuseppe & Corsi, Fulvio, 2021. "A DCC-type approach for realized covariance modeling with score-driven dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 569-586.
  15. Xu, Yanyan & Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Chu, Jielei, 2024. "Liquidity and realized volatility prediction in Chinese stock market: A time-varying transitional dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 543-560.
  16. Carlo Drago & Andrea Scozzari, 2023. "A Network-Based Analysis for Evaluating Conditional Covariance Estimates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, January.
  17. Amendola, Alessandra & Braione, Manuela & Candila, Vincenzo & Storti, Giuseppe, 2020. "A Model Confidence Set approach to the combination of multivariate volatility forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 873-891.
  18. Clements, Adam & Preve, Daniel P.A., 2021. "A Practical Guide to harnessing the HAR volatility model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  19. Gaoxiu Qiao & Yangli Cao & Feng Ma & Weiping Li, 2023. "Liquidity and realized covariance forecasting: a hybrid method with model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 437-463, January.
  20. Jiawen Luo & Shengjie Fu & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "The Role of Uncertainty in Forecasting Realized Covariance of US State-Level Stock Returns: A Reverse-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202501, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero Gallo & Alessandro Palandri, 2020. "A Dynamic Conditional Approach to Portfolio Weights Forecasting," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  22. Shin, Minseok & Kim, Donggyu & Wang, Yazhen & Fan, Jianqing, 2025. "Factor and idiosyncratic VAR volatility matrix models for heavy-tailed high-frequency financial observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
  23. Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  24. Bucci, Andrea & Ciciretti, Vito, 2022. "Market regime detection via realized covariances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  25. Pirino, Davide & Pollastri, Alessandro & Trapin, Luca, 2025. "Testing liquidity: A statistical theory based on asset staleness," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-40.
  26. Li, Chenxing, 2022. "A multivariate GARCH model with an infinite hidden Markov mixture," MPRA Paper 112792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  28. Yutong Lu & Gesine Reinert & Mihai Cucuringu, 2023. "Co-trading networks for modeling dynamic interdependency structures and estimating high-dimensional covariances in US equity markets," Papers 2302.09382, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  29. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2022. "Realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility with asymmetry, long memory and higher-moment spillovers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 285-304.
  30. BAUWENS, Luc & BRAIONE, Manuela & STORTI, Giuseppe, 2016. "Multiplicative Conditional Correlation Models for Realized Covariance Matrices," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2016041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  31. Luo, Jiawen & Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2025. "Forecasting multivariate volatilities with exogenous predictors: An application to industry diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  32. Zhang, Chao & Pu, Xingyue & Cucuringu, Mihai & Dong, Xiaowen, 2025. "Forecasting realized volatility with spillover effects: Perspectives from graph neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 377-397.
  33. Bekierman, Jeremias & Manner, Hans, 2018. "Forecasting realized variance measures using time-varying coefficient models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 276-287.
  34. Luo, Jiawen & Chen, Langnan, 2020. "Realized volatility forecast with the Bayesian random compressed multivariate HAR model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 781-799.
  35. Qu, Hui & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Asymmetric multivariate HAR models for realized covariance matrix: A study based on volatility timing strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  36. Ostap Okhrin & Anastasija Tetereva, 2017. "The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, June.
  37. Laura Capera Romero & Anne Opschoor, 2025. "Revisiting EWMA in High-Frequency Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Assessment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  38. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Gribisch, Bastian, 2022. "Modeling and forecasting realized portfolio weights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  39. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Schmid, Wolfgang & Seifert, Miriam Isabel & Lazariv, Taras, 2020. "Statistical inferences for realized portfolio weights," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 49-62.
  40. Bauwens, Luc & Otranto, Edoardo, 2023. "Realized Covariance Models with Time-varying Parameters and Spillover Effects," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2023019, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  41. Andre Lucas & Anne Opschoor & Luca Rossini, 2021. "Tail Heterogeneity for Dynamic Covariance Matrices: the F-Riesz Distribution," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Jul 2023.
  42. Jan Patrick Hartkopf, 2023. "Composite forecasting of vast-dimensional realized covariance matrices using factor state-space models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 393-436, January.
  43. Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and stock market volatility revisited: The predictive role of signal quality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2307-2321, December.
  44. Guangying Liu & Kewen Shi & Meng Yuan, 2026. "Forecasting the High‐Frequency Covariance Matrix Using the LSTM‐MF Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 29-46, January.
  45. Shafqat Iqbal & Štefan Lyócsa, 2026. "A Fuzzy Framework for Realized Volatility Prediction: Empirical Evidence From Equity Markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 1261-1291, April.
  46. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  47. Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen, 2019. "Multivariate realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1565-1586, December.
  48. Yasin Simsek, 2025. "Spot Regressions with Candlesticks," Papers 2510.12911, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
  49. Clements, Adam & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2023. "Combining simple multivariate HAR-like models for portfolio construction," Working Papers BAWP-2023-03, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  50. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun, 2023. "The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  51. Gribisch, Bastian & Hartkopf, Jan Patrick, 2023. "Modeling realized covariance measures with heterogeneous liquidity: A generalized matrix-variate Wishart state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 43-64.
  52. Wen, Conghua & Zhai, Jia & Wang, Yinuo & Cao, Yi, 2024. "Implied volatility is (almost) past-dependent: Linear vs non-linear models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  53. Yan, Lili & Kellard, Neil M. & Lambercy, Lyudmyla, 2025. "Multivariate range-based EGARCH models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  54. Sven Husmann & Antoniya Shivarova & Rick Steinert, 2021. "Cross-validated covariance estimators for high-dimensional minimum-variance portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 309-352, September.
  55. Jiawen Luo & Qun Zhang, 2024. "Air pollution, weather factors, and realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 151-217, February.
  56. Salisu, Afees A. & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse & Hammed, Yinka S., 2024. "Gold market volatility and REITs' returns during tranquil and turbulent episodes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
  57. Caio Mário Mesquita & Cristiano Arbex Valle & Adriano César Machado Pereira, 2024. "Scenario Generation for Financial Data with a Machine Learning Approach Based on Realized Volatility and Copulas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1879-1919, May.
  58. Hugo Gobato Souto & Amir Moradi, 2026. "Enhancing financial risk management: a novel multivariate neural network approach for realized covariance matrix prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, December.
  59. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2023. "Using, taming or avoiding the factor zoo? A double-shrinkage estimator for covariance matrices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 23-35.
  60. Hsiang‐Tai Lee, 2024. "Riemannian‐geometric regime‐switching covariance hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1003-1054, June.
  61. Symitsi, Efthymia & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Kourtis, Apostolos & Markellos, Raphael, 2018. "Covariance forecasting in equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-168.
  62. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Palandri, Alessandro, 2021. "A dynamic conditional approach to forecasting portfolio weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1111-1126.
  63. Laura Capera Romero & Anne Opschoor, 2024. "Realized Variances vs. Correlations: Unlocking the Gains in Multivariate Volatility Forecasting," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-059/III, Tinbergen Institute.
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