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A Comparative Study on the Role of Stochastic Trends in U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations, 1954-1988

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  • Seymen, Atilim

Abstract

The paper attempts to provide an appropriate model specification for identifying technology and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR framework. The investigation is conducted based on two seminal structural VAR studies by Gali (1999) and King et al. (1991). The models of these studies are compared and contrasted, and then modified based on the findings. The analysis builds on two studies of Alexius and Carlsson (2001, 2005) that examine the ability of structural VAR models to identify technology shocks. The original and augmented models are used for investigating the driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Seymen, Atilim, 2008. "A Comparative Study on the Role of Stochastic Trends in U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations, 1954-1988," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-007, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
    6. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/20, New Zealand Treasury.
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    12. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    13. Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Steiner, Viktor, 2003. "Reforming Social Welfare as We Know It? A Microsimulation Study for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-33, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Vector Autoregression; Long-Run Restrictions; Error Variance Decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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