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Das Scheitern junger Betriebe: Ein Überlebensdauermodell auf Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels

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  • Falck, Oliver

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen sektoraler, regionaler sowie betrieblicher Determinanten auf das Scheitern junger Betriebe mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen Überlebensdauer-Ansatzes analysiert. Dabei findet ein accelerated failure time model mit zugrunde liegender log-logistischer Verteilung Anwendung. Datengrundlage bildet das IAB-Betriebspanel, eine repräsentative Betriebsbefragung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB). In die Analyse gehen junge Betriebe im privaten Sektor (westdeutsche Bundesländer, Zeitraum 1993-2002) ein. Die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit junger Betriebe ist in Sektoren mit hoher mindestoptimaler Betriebsgröße und einer hohen Anzahl von Gründungen überdurchschnittlich hoch. Darüber hinaus spielen regionale Faktoren eine zentrale Rolle. Auf betrieblicher Ebene is die Betriebsgröße der beste Prädiktor für die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit.

Suggested Citation

  • Falck, Oliver, 2005. "Das Scheitern junger Betriebe: Ein Überlebensdauermodell auf Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-32-05, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v3205
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    Cited by:

    1. Otto, Anne & Fornahl, Dirk, 2008. "Long-term growth determinants of young businesses in Germany : effects of regional concentration and specialisation," IAB-Discussion Paper 200813, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Welter, Friederike & Levering, Britta & May-Strobl, Eva, 2016. "Mittelstandspolitik im Wandel," IfM-Materialien 247, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    3. Anne Otto & Dirk Fronahl, 2009. "Long-Term Growth Determinants Of Young Businesses In Germany – The Effects Of Regional Concentration And Specialisation," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, JUNE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scheitern junger Betriebe; Ereignisanalyse; Überlebensdaueranalyse; Hazardratenmodell; log-logistische Hazardfunktion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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