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Das Scheitern junger Betriebe: Ein Überlebensdauermodell auf Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels

  • Falck, Oliver

In diesem Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen sektoraler, regionaler sowie betrieblicher Determinanten auf das Scheitern junger Betriebe mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen Überlebensdauer-Ansatzes analysiert. Dabei findet ein accelerated failure time model mit zugrunde liegender log-logistischer Verteilung Anwendung. Datengrundlage bildet das IAB-Betriebspanel, eine repräsentative Betriebsbefragung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB). In die Analyse gehen junge Betriebe im privaten Sektor (westdeutsche Bundesländer, Zeitraum 1993-2002) ein. Die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit junger Betriebe ist in Sektoren mit hoher mindestoptimaler Betriebsgröße und einer hohen Anzahl von Gründungen überdurchschnittlich hoch. Darüber hinaus spielen regionale Faktoren eine zentrale Rolle. Auf betrieblicher Ebene is die Betriebsgröße der beste Prädiktor für die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit.

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Paper provided by University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics in its series Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe with number V-32-05.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v3205
Contact details of provider: Postal: 94030 Passau
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Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-passau.de/index.php?L=2

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