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Individual skill or just luck? Decomposing individual finishing and shot-stopping performance in European football

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  • Böttger, Tom
  • Vischer, Lars

Abstract

Expected goals (xG) are widely used to evaluate football performance. However, it is unclear whether players who consistently outperform their xG do so because of skill or because of luck. To our knowledge, this paper provides the first meta-analytic estimate of between-player heterogeneity in finishing and shot-stopping overperformance, extending existing team-level skillluck decompositions provided by Holzmeister & Johannesson (2025) to the individual player level. We analyse data from the English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 across eight seasons (2017/18-2024/25), totalling 3,202 outfield player-seasons and 932 goalkeeper-seasons. Using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) random-effects metaanalysis, we find that between-player heterogeneity accounts for 6.753-29.945% of total variance in finishing overperformance (average I² ≈ 21%) and 7.690-34.344% in shot-stopping (average I² ≈ 25%). Skill is detectable but modest. A complementary persistence regression shows that part of this overperformance carries over to the next season, both for outfield players (Ø = 0.110, p

Suggested Citation

  • Böttger, Tom & Vischer, Lars, 2026. "Individual skill or just luck? Decomposing individual finishing and shot-stopping performance in European football," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 3/2026, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:umiodp:340032
    DOI: 10.17879/60948663147
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies
    • Z22 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Labor Issues

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