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Was there a regime change in the German monetary transmission mechanism in 1983?


  • Candelon, Bertrand
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut


Recent investigations of the transmission mechanism of German monetary policy arrive at quite different conclusions regarding its stability during the period of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank. In this study small dynamic models for the monetary sector of the German economy are analyzed in detail to determine the sources for the contrasting results found in the literature. It turns out that instabilities detected in previous work in the 1980s are possibly spurious. Thus, it appears that the monetary transmission mechanism was reasonably stable and, hence, one important precondition for a monetary targeting policy was satisfied.

Suggested Citation

  • Candelon, Bertrand & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Was there a regime change in the German monetary transmission mechanism in 1983?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,17, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200017

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hardle, W. & Tsybakov, A., 1997. "Local polynomial estimators of the volatility function in nonparametric autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 223-242, November.
    2. repec:crs:wpaper:9546 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ronald J. Mahieu & Peter C. Schotman, 1998. "An empirical application of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 333-360.
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    More about this item


    cointegration analysis; monetary policy; Markov regime switching analysis; money demand; vector error correction model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money


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