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IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2025: Warten auf die Wende

Author

Listed:
  • Bardt, Hubertus
  • Beznoska, Martin
  • Demary, Markus
  • Grömling, Michael
  • Henger, Ralph
  • Hentze, Tobias
  • Hüther, Michael
  • Obst, Thomas
  • Pimpertz, Jochen
  • Schäfer, Holger
  • Seele, Stefanie

Abstract

Nach zwei Jahren Rezession tritt die deutsche Wirtschaft im Jahr 2025 nur auf der Stelle. Der Außenhandel bleibt im Desorientierungsstress, weil geopolitische De-Normalisierung den Welthandel belasten. Der Konsum bleibt trotz normaler Inflation, aber wegen gedämpfter Beschäftigungsperspektiven unter seinem Potenzial. Die Investitionen verharren im Vorsichtsmodus. Für 2026 wird eine anhaltende Besserung erwartet - mit gut 1 Prozent wird aber keine wirkliche Aufschwungsqualität erreicht.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardt, Hubertus & Beznoska, Martin & Demary, Markus & Grömling, Michael & Henger, Ralph & Hentze, Tobias & Hüther, Michael & Obst, Thomas & Pimpertz, Jochen & Schäfer, Holger & Seele, Stefanie, 2025. "IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2025: Warten auf die Wende," IW-Kurzberichte 83/2025, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:328011
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