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Kosten der aktuellen US-Zollpolitik

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  • Kolev-Schaefer, Galina
  • Hüther, Michael

Abstract

Trotz der grundsätzlichen Einigung der EU mit den USA bleibt die Unsicherheit bezüglich des weiteren Verlaufs des Handelskonflikts hoch. Selbst wenn die getroffene Vereinbarung umgesetzt wird und der Basiszoll auf US-Importe aus der EU bei 15 Prozent bleibt, wird das für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft Kosten in Höhe von 0,4 Prozent des BIP oder 16 Milliarden Euro im Durchschnitt über die Jahre 2025-2028 mit sich bringen. Steigt der durchschnittliche Zollsatz hingegen wie zuletzt angedroht auf 35 Prozent, so ist mit Kosten von über 40 Milliarden Euro, mit entsprechender Vergeltung sogar über 50 Milliarden Euro jährlich zu rechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolev-Schaefer, Galina & Hüther, Michael, 2025. "Kosten der aktuellen US-Zollpolitik," IW-Kurzberichte 68/2025, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:323598
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