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The security dividend of climate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Beaufils, Timothé
  • Jakob, Michael
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias
  • Richter, Philipp M.
  • Spiro, Daniel
  • Stern, Lennart
  • Wanner, Joschka

Abstract

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro reduction in oil consumption in the EU results in a security dividend of 37 cents (central estimate). • Based on the security dividend alone, a significant carbon price (central estimate of 60 euros per ton of CO2) on oil consumption is justified - in addition to its climate, terms-of-trade, and local health benefits. • Ambitious EU climate policy that reduces demand for oil and natural gas should be seen as an important pillar of the European security architecture, complementing military spending, diplomatic efforts, and continued support to Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Beaufils, Timothé & Jakob, Michael & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Richter, Philipp M. & Spiro, Daniel & Stern, Lennart & Wanner, Joschka, 2025. "The security dividend of climate policy," Kiel Policy Brief 187, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:315745
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro & Henrik Wachtmeister, 2022. "The effect of European fuel-tax cuts on the oil income of Russia," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 989-997, October.
    2. Beaufils, Timothé & Conyngham, Killian & de Vries, Marlene & Jakob, Michael & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Richter, Philipp M. & Spiro, Daniel & Stern, Lennart & Wanner, Joschka, 2025. "The geopolitical externality of climate policy," Kiel Working Papers 2283, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU climate policy; Security dividend; Russia; Ukraine; Defense spending; Geopolitical externality; EU-Klimapolitik; Sicherheitsdividende; Russland; Ukraine; Verteidigungsausgaben; Geopolitische Externalität;
    All these keywords.

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