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Still no reform effect, just overfitted control functions and inflated precision

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Listed:
  • Adema, Joop
  • Folke, Olle
  • Rickne, Johanna

Abstract

In his comment on our replication of Ciacci (2024), Ciacci (2025b) again finds large and statistically significant treatment effects on rape from Sweden's ban on sex purchases. These estimates derive from overfitted control functions and incorrect clustering in the regression discontinuity in time analysis. We show how this happens and conclude that the comment does not alter the prior conclusions in the replications of the original article (Adema et al. 2025; Ciacci 2025).

Suggested Citation

  • Adema, Joop & Folke, Olle & Rickne, Johanna, 2025. "Still no reform effect, just overfitted control functions and inflated precision," I4R Discussion Paper Series 249, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:249
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/321376/1/I4R-DP249.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Ciacci, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Riccardo Ciacci, 2025. "Additional evidence on the effects of banning the purchase of sex on cases of rape in Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-13, June.
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    1. Ciacci, Riccardo, 2025. "Re-analysis of Adema et al. (2025a)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 248, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    2. Adema, Joop & Folke, Olle & Rickne, Johanna, 2025. "Re-Analysis of Ciacci, R. (2024). Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden," I4R Discussion Paper Series 226, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    3. Riccardo Ciacci, 2025. "Additional evidence on the effects of banning the purchase of sex on cases of rape in Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-13, June.

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