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Do Experimental Asset Market Results Replicate? High-Powered Preregistered Replications of 17 Claims

Author

Listed:
  • Huber, Christoph
  • Holzmeister, Felix
  • Johannesson, Magnus
  • König-Kersting, Christian
  • Dreber, Anna
  • Huber, Jürgen
  • Kirchler, Michael

Abstract

Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, collecting new data from 166 markets with 1,544 participants. Only 3 of the 14 original results reported as statistically significant were successfully replicated, with an average replication effect size of 2.9% of the original estimates. We fail to replicate findings on emotions, self-control, and gender differences in bubble formation but confirm that experience reduces bubbles and cognitive skills explain trading success. Our study demonstrates the importance of replications in enhancing the credibility of scientific claims in this field.

Suggested Citation

  • Huber, Christoph & Holzmeister, Felix & Johannesson, Magnus & König-Kersting, Christian & Dreber, Anna & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2024. "Do Experimental Asset Market Results Replicate? High-Powered Preregistered Replications of 17 Claims," I4R Discussion Paper Series 190, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:190
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Huntington-Klein & Claus C. Portner & Ian McCarthy & The Many Economists Collaborative on Researcher Variation, 2025. "The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics," NBER Working Papers 33729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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