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Climate adaptation, water governance & conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Bertini, Raffaele
  • Grigoriadis, Theocharis

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of renewable water conditions and water use on violent conflict in rural agrifood systems. We implement a fixed-effects instrumental variables strategy that uses plausibly exogenous temperature and precipitation shocks to instrument multiple water outcomes. Annual specifications are imprecise, but five-year aggregations yield sharper inference and show that higher renewable freshwater availability significantly reduces conflict risk. Water use margins are central: freshwater withdrawals are associated with lower conflict, whereas higher aggregate water-use efficiency is associated with increased conflict risk. Overall, the results indicate that climate-driven water shocks operate through distinct channels - stocks, withdrawals, and efficiency-and that empirical conclusions depend critically on time aggregation and the definition of water being instrumented. The findings imply that climate adaptation and water policy should be paired with conflict-sensitive governance and improved measurement of local water use and access.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertini, Raffaele & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2026. "Climate adaptation, water governance & conflict," Discussion Papers 2026/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340109
    DOI: 10.17169/refubium-51934
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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