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Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Mashrur Mustaque
  • Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek

Abstract

The study examines the influence of a selective set of macroeconomic forces on stock market prices in Bangladesh. The Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Price Index (DSI) is used to represent the prices in the stock market while deposit interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index (CPI), crude oil prices and broad money supply (M2) are selected to represent the macroeconomic variables affecting the stock prices. Using monthly data from 1992m1-2011m6, several time-series techniques were used which include Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Variance Decompositions (VDC). Cointegration analysis, along with the VECM, suggests that interest rates, crude oil prices and money supply are positively related to stock prices, exchange rates are negatively related to stock prices, and CPI is insignificant in influencing the stock prices, in the long-run. Both the IRF and VDC suggest that shocks to macroeconomic variables explain a small proportion of the forecast variance error of the DSI, but these effects persist for a long period.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," EconStor Preprints 72453, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:72453
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Abu HASAN, 2017. "Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 239-249, June.
    2. K.M. Zahidul Islam, Yeasmin Akter and MD. Nahid Alam, 2020. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis in The Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 115-141, June.
    3. Konrad Farrugia & Janice Duca & Peter J. Baldacchino & Simon Grima, 2021. "The Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns in a Small Island State: An Analysis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 11(2), pages 51-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Prices; Macroeconomic Factors; Dhaka Stock Exchange; Cointegration; VEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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