Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market
The study examines the influence of a selective set of macroeconomic forces on stock market prices in Bangladesh. The Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Price Index (DSI) is used to represent the prices in the stock market while deposit interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index (CPI), crude oil prices and broad money supply (M2) are selected to represent the macroeconomic variables affecting the stock prices. Using monthly data from 1992m1-2011m6, several time-series techniques were used which include Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Variance Decompositions (VDC). Cointegration analysis, along with the VECM, suggests that interest rates, crude oil prices and money supply are positively related to stock prices, exchange rates are negatively related to stock prices, and CPI is insignificant in influencing the stock prices, in the long-run. Both the IRF and VDC suggest that shocks to macroeconomic variables explain a small proportion of the forecast variance error of the DSI, but these effects persist for a long period.
|Date of creation:||24 Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Düsternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel / Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, 20354 Hamburg|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814-520
Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:72453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.