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Hard to process: Atypical firms and the cross-section of expected stock returns

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  • Weibels, Sebastian

Abstract

Theories of limited attention predict that investors rely on typical patterns to navigate high-dimensional firm characteristics, making atypical firms hard to process. To quantify this difficulty, we propose a data-driven measure of firm atypicality using an autoencoder (ATYP). The model learns typical patterns that describe most firms, and our measure aggregates the deviations those patterns cannot explain. Unlike proxies based on disclosure or organizational complexity, this approach captures the processing difficulty of the characteristics themselves. Empirically, we document that atypicality strongly predicts future returns. A decile portfolio that sells high-ATYP firms and buys low-ATYP firms earns 1.47% per month (equal-weighted) and 0.82% (value-weighted). The effect strengthens where investor attention is low and arbi- trage is limited, suggesting mispricing as the explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Weibels, Sebastian, 2026. "Hard to process: Atypical firms and the cross-section of expected stock returns," CFR Working Papers 26-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:337469
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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