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Safe haven status and international shock transmission

Author

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  • Hasenclever, Stefan
  • Kolb, Benedikt

Abstract

What are the macro-financial implications if the safe haven status shifts from the US to the euro area? In a two-block DSGE model, a safe haven status of the euro area dampens the effects of flight-to-safety shocks on European domestic aggregate demand and financial conditions. The shock after April 2, 2025, may have been considerably cushioned in the euro area by its safe haven status at the time. However, in a crisis with a relatively smaller international flight to safety, as in 2008-09, the shock attenuation by a European safe haven status would be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasenclever, Stefan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2026. "Safe haven status and international shock transmission," Discussion Papers 30/2026, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:344531
    DOI: 10.71734/DP-2026-30
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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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