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How Promotions Work: SCAN*PRO-Based Evolutionary Model Building

Author

Listed:
  • Peter S.H. Leeflang

    (Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen)

  • Harald J. van Heerde

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Dick Wittink

    (School of Management)

Abstract

We provide a rationale for evolutionary model building. The basic idea is that to enhance user acceptance it is important that one begins with a relatively simple model. Simplicity is desired so that managers understand models. As a manager uses the model and builds up experience with this decision aid, she will realize its shortcomings. The model will then be expanded and will lead to the increase of complexity. Evolutionary model building also stimulates the generalization of marketing knowledge. We illustrate this by discussing different extensions of the SCAN*PRO model. The purpose of published model extensions is to increase the knowledge about "how promotions work" and to provide support for more complex decisions. We summarize the generated knowledge about how promotions work, based on this process.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter S.H. Leeflang & Harald J. van Heerde & Dick Wittink, 2002. "How Promotions Work: SCAN*PRO-Based Evolutionary Model Building," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm292, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm292
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    Cited by:

    1. Guhl, Daniel & Baumgartner, Bernhard & Kneib, Thomas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2018. "Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-414.
    2. Kurt A. Jetta & Erick W. Rengifo, 2009. "Improved Baseline Sales," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-02, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sule Birim & Ipek Kazancoglu & Sachin Kumar Mangla & Aysun Kahraman & Yigit Kazancoglu, 2024. "The derived demand for advertising expenses and implications on sustainability: a comparative study using deep learning and traditional machine learning methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 339(1), pages 131-161, August.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Weber, Anett & Steiner, Winfried J., 2021. "Modeling price response from retail sales: An empirical comparison of models with different representations of heterogeneity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 843-859.
    6. Hewage, Harsha Chamara & Perera, H. Niles & De Baets, Shari, 2022. "Forecast adjustments during post-promotional periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 461-472.
    7. Leeflang, Peter, 2011. "Paving the way for “distinguished marketing”," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 76-88.
    8. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "A retail store SKU promotions optimization model for category multi-period profit maximization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 680-692.
    9. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    10. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    11. Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Hurley, Jason & Eshragh, Ali & Fahimnia, Behnam, 2020. "Demand forecasting in the presence of systematic events: Cases in capturing sales promotions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
    13. Anett Weber & Winfried J. Steiner & Stefan Lang, 2017. "A comparison of semiparametric and heterogeneous store sales models for optimal category pricing," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 403-445, March.
    14. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 2013. "Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 234-243.
    15. Burmester, Alexa B. & Becker, Jan U. & van Heerde, Harald J. & Clement, Michel, 2015. "The impact of pre- and post-launch publicity and advertising on new product sales," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 408-417.
    16. Parreño-Selva, Josefa & Mas-Ruiz, Francisco J. & Ruiz-Conde, Enar, 2017. "The effects of price promotion on relative virtue and vice food products," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 20(5).
    17. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    18. Philipp Aschersleben & Winfried J. Steiner, 2022. "A semiparametric approach to estimating reference price effects in sales response models," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 591-643, May.
    19. Lang, Stefan & Steiner, Winfried J. & Weber, Anett & Wechselberger, Peter, 2015. "Accommodating heterogeneity and nonlinearity in price effects for predicting brand sales and profits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 232-241.
    20. van Donselaar, K.H. & Peters, J. & de Jong, A. & Broekmeulen, R.A.C.M., 2016. "Analysis and forecasting of demand during promotions for perishable items," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 65-75.
    21. Naragain Phumchusri & Warot Kosawanitchakarn & Sirawich Chawanapranee & Sirawish Srimook, 2023. "Evaluating promotional pricing effectiveness using convenience store daily sales data," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 362-373, October.
    22. Antonis A. Michis, 2023. "Retail distribution evaluation in brand-level sales response models," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(3), pages 366-378, September.
    23. Evgeny A. Antipov & Elena B. Pokryshevskaya, 2020. "Interpretable machine learning for demand modeling with high-dimensional data using Gradient Boosting Machines and Shapley values," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 355-364, October.
    24. Andrews, Rick L. & Currim, Imran S. & Leeflang, Peter & Lim, Jooseop, 2008. "Estimating the SCAN⁎PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-33.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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