Business Cycles in South-East Europe from Independence to the end of the Cold War
Based on a freshly built data set and relying on a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model, this paper constructs business cycle indices for five South-East European (SEE) countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia) to address two questions: to what extent has there been a common SEE business cycle, and has there been synchronisation of business cycles with England, France and Germany? We find limited but increasing business cycle integration before World War I, both within SEE and vis-Ã -vis the core economies. The trend towards increasing levels of business cycle synchronisation accelerates in the interwar period and is not even interrupted by the arrival of the Great Depression. The onset of the Cold War almost completely extinguishes regional business cycle integration, but the reorientation of some communist countries towards the West (early on by Yugoslavia, from the mid-1970s also by Romania) also sees the re-emergence of a common business cycle vis-Ã -vis Austria and Germany. JEL classification:
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/research/research-clusters/cherry/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:11/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doriana Delfino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.