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Business Cycles in South-East Europe from Independence to the end of the Cold War


  • Matthias Morys
  • Martin Ivanov


Based on a freshly built data set and relying on a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model, this paper constructs business cycle indices for five South-East European (SEE) countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia) to address two questions: to what extent has there been a common SEE business cycle, and has there been synchronisation of business cycles with England, France and Germany? We find limited but increasing business cycle integration before World War I, both within SEE and vis-Ã -vis the core economies. The trend towards increasing levels of business cycle synchronisation accelerates in the interwar period and is not even interrupted by the arrival of the Great Depression. The onset of the Cold War almost completely extinguishes regional business cycle integration, but the reorientation of some communist countries towards the West (early on by Yugoslavia, from the mid-1970s also by Romania) also sees the re-emergence of a common business cycle vis-Ã -vis Austria and Germany. JEL classification:

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  • Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2011. "Business Cycles in South-East Europe from Independence to the end of the Cold War," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 11/02, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:11/02

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Oliver Houpt & Juan Carlos Rojo Cagigal, 2014. "Relative deprivation and labour conflict during Spain’s industrialization: the Bilbao estuary, 1914–1936," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 335-369, September.

    More about this item


    South-East European business cycle; national historical accounts; common dynamic factor analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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