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Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten

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  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea

    () (MEA)

  • Wilke, Christina

    () (MEA)

Abstract

In spring 2007 the German government increased the statutory retirement age from 65 to 67. We simulate the long-term impact of this measure on the budget of the German public pension system. In contrast to previous simulations our results are based on a model that explicitly accounts for feedback effects between the development of the work force, individual retirement decisions and the evolution of the retired population in a consistent manner. Overall, increasing the statutory retirement age results in a slower rise of the contribution rate from 2013 onwards, and, from 2014 on the decline of the benefit levels is slowed. Furthermore, we find that allowing for different individual reactions only has a moderate impact on the development of the German public pension system due to the stabilizing effects of early retirement deductions. On the level of individuals, retirement income from the public pension system can be improved substantially by retiring later.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Wilke, Christina, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-44, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:08-44
    Note: Wir danken Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held und Ulrich Schlieper für wertvolle Unterstützung und Diskussionen, sowie Kalamkas Kaldybajewa von der Deutschen Rentenversicherung und dem Forschungsdatenzentrum, insbesondere Ralf Himmelreicher, für ihre Hilfe. Weiterhin bedanken wir uns bei Konrad Harker vom Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales und Johannes Clemens von der deutschen Bundesbank für hilfreiche Kommentare. Unser Dank gilt auch den Förderern des MEA für die Unterstützung bei der Erstellung dieses Beitrags, vor allem dem Land Baden-Württemberg, der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) und dem Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungs-wirtschaft (GDV).
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    Cited by:

    1. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    2. Valentin Vogt & Jörg Althammer, 2016. "Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 465, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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