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Exchange Rate Risk and Imperfect Capital Mobility in an Optimising Macromodel


  • Rankin, N.


A stochastic two-period model of a small open economy with optimizing consumption and portfolio choice is constructed. Exchange rate risk means domestic-currency bonds are imperfect substitutes for foreign-currency bonds. Expectations are rational, i.e. subjective probability distributions equal the true distributions resulting from the exogenous sources of uncertainty, which in this model are the foreign inflation rate and either the future money supply or government spending. With the former, no real risk premium exists, but increased monetary variance reduces current output, which nominal wage rigidity makes responsive to aggregate demand. With the latter source of uncertainty a premium exists, but neither the risk premium nor output is affected by an increased variance of government spending.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rankin, N., 1991. "Exchange Rate Risk and Imperfect Capital Mobility in an Optimising Macromodel," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 373, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:373

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-764, July.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
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    4. Kanbur, R. & Keen, M., 1988. "Poverty, Incentives And Linear Income Taxation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 298, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
    6. Besley, Timothy J & Kanbur, S M Ravi, 1988. "Food Subsidies and Poverty Alleviation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 701-719, September.
    7. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    8. Besley, Timothy, 1990. "Means Testing versus Universal Provision in Poverty Alleviation Programmes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(225), pages 119-129, February.
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